It feels like the more aggressive the estimate is for the upper bound the less accurate it sounds, whether that's true or not. Somehow it just feels more believ

It feels like the more aggressive the estimate is for the upper bound the less accurate it sounds, whether that's true or not. Somehow it just feels more believable that it's 2x instead of 10x without considering evidence either way. I think epidemiology is a tough field because you never actually have any verifiable ground truth.