3 ms·
I don't think this kind of bet/prediction really gives a big advantage to experts. And that includes any long prediction in any field, not just biochemistry or
by iamthepieman 6y ago
I don't think this kind of bet/prediction really gives a big advantage to experts. And that includes any long prediction in any field, not just biochemistry or epidemiology.
I would put more faith in the predictions of a statistician or actuary (possibly with a expert in consult).
- abeppu 6y agoI'm curious about that perspective. Isn't it really hard for statisticians to give probabilities to things that have never happened before? Especially in the presence of important non stationarity ("the technology is proliferating")? Like, one can construct a lot of models which give non-zero probability, but the available data gives you very little ability to distinguish between them.