3 ms·
They are estimating infection rates by combining mortality stats specifically for the younger part of the population and seroprevalence studies. So if you acce
by rsfern 6y ago
They are estimating infection rates by combining mortality stats specifically for the younger part of the population and seroprevalence studies.
So if you accept the known biases in the seroprevalence studies, and make the (strong, IMO) assumption that an individual’s risk of severe disease is not correlated to behavior that reduced their odds of infection before September (the cutoff in this study), and account for the age distribution in the as yet uninfected population, maybe you could get reasonable ish bounds.
I’m skeptical because a change in behavior probably changes relative risk of infection, and I think people with known risk factors are probably more careful on average.
Anyways, the first thing to do would be to check such an estimate against data for October and November
- andy_ppp 6y agoI see what you mean here, it makes sense that those at risk didn’t go to illegal raves or BLM protests. Therefore the infection rate could be higher than 5%. My guesstimate from the small sample of people I knew is 10-15% of people lost their smell in late February to early April and some had horrendous symptoms and a few had those symptoms last for months! I wouldn’t say many people I know have been affected by the second wave so who knows.