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No such argument is possible at the time they made the bet. If such an argument is possible, there wouldn't be a bet, because the other side would have been per

• pmoriarty 6y ago
  A gut feeling is not an argument. And whether an argument is persuasive depends on what the argument is and on the people evaluating it. Arguments with using hard data and actual reasons for picking a certain time frame are not automatically persuasive. Take a look at the Peak Oil arguments that were made. They had pretty hard numbers and reasons for their predictions, but plenty of people were not persuaded. Another example is Ray Kurzweil's predictions about the singularity, which also had their reasons, statistics, etc, but plenty of people disputed them and made counterarguments. But least you could tell why they believed their predictions would happen within that timeframe. No such evaluation is possible with the "bioerror" predictions, however, since they didn't make arguments for why it should happen by the end of 2020, but instead just expressed their "gut feeling", as you point out. That's absolutely worthless.
  • echlebek 6y ago
    It seems to have been worth $400.
  • zimpenfish 6y ago
    > A gut feeling is not an argument. A gut feeling is absolutely an argument. It may not be a well-reasoned, evidence-supported, or persuasive argument but it absolutely 100% is an argument.