4 ms·
That story only reports a death-with-COVID that was a few weeks (February 6) before the first-at-the-time discovered community case (February ~26: https://www.u
by gojomo 6y ago
That story only reports a death-with-COVID that was a few weeks (February 6) before the first-at-the-time discovered community case (February ~26: https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/patient-and-precautions-uc-davis-medical-center/ https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/patient-and-precaut...).
I've seen two people on Twitter claim UCSF personnel have told them COVID was discovered retrospectively in UCSF December 2019 autopsies: https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/1333932912329146368 https://twitter.com/gojomo/status/1333932912329146368
Neither of the people claiming that seemed to me be prevaricators/hoaxers/people-with-an-axe-to-grind. And, that sort of discovery would be a plausible outcome of a review of all autopsies back to December that California ordered in April – https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/newsom-orders-all-ca-counties-to-review-autopsies-dating-to-december https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/newsom-orders-all-ca-coun... – on which I've seen little followup reporting. But, I've seen no other confirmation of these UCSF rumors in official statements.
So: still wondering what hard evidence, if any dates COVID-in-the-US to December 2019 or earlier. (There's a survey of December blood donors which found 2% immune reactivity - but the imprecision of that test, especially given known cross-reactivities with other 'common cold' coronaviruses has caused some experts to discount it as definitive proof that COVID was circulating then.)
- roywiggins 6y agoIf you push the first death to Feb 6, then they were probably infected mid-January, and without any known links to China, it seems much more likely than not that there were a cases that percolated around California in December-January before it caused that death: > “What it means is we had coronavirus circulating in the community much earlier than we had documented and much earlier than we had thought,” said Dr. Sara Cody, Santa Clara County’s public health officer. “Those deaths probably represent many, many more infections. And so there had to be chains of transmission that go back much earlier.”
- gojomo 6y agoWe're agreed on what's probable, but I'd love to find reliably-reported evidentiary confirmation, especially about magnitude of pre-February-2020 or even 2019 US circulation!