Neither is that compelling; otherwise there wouldn't be a bet. Rees basically said, I bet this is going to happen before 2020 ends, because my gut said so. Pi

Neither is that compelling; otherwise there wouldn't be a bet. Rees basically said, I bet this is going to happen before 2020 ends, because my gut said so. Pinker multiplied a bunch of statistical principals without a number. I really don't understand how to reach a conclusion based on his line of reasoning. At least the gut feeling of an expert is somewhat a reasonable point.