3 ms·

Nothing in the parent post claims it was "engineered in a lab". Being accidentally released from a lab is not inconsistent with being "natural born". I think t

• staplung 6y ago
  True, but for the purposes of the bet, you'd have to effectively _prove_ that it escaped from a lab, which seems virtually impossible. In any case, the linked articles talk about that possibility too. Then again one could make the argument that incompetence in the world's collective response to the pandemic is "bioerror" although again, the debate and terminology only really have to be resolved by the two bettors.
  • est31 6y ago
    There is a huge outdoors lab where we run a gigantic experiment "what happens when humans encroach on natural habitats of mammals on a never seen before scale and humans also are highly mobile, able to spread novel diseases across the globe before they even get discovered or their severity assessed?".
  • breck 6y ago
    > Then again one could make the argument that incompetence in the world's collective response to the pandemic is "bioerror Pinker specifically spells this out: "I assume a mere lack of preparedness doesn't count)" So I think it would have to be agreed with >50% likelihood that it was released by a Chinese lab or some similar error for Pinker to lose.
    • garmaine 6y ago
      The incontrovertible facts are that deliberate and/or grossly negligent actions caused COVID to spread as far as it has. That’s a step beyond “a mere lack of preparedness”, so it’s not clear what the outcome should be.
      • breck 6y ago
        Haha I won't argue with you there :).