6 ms·

There is essentially zero evidence that SARS-CoV2 was engineered in a lab. In any case, the evidence that it's natural born doesn't have to be believed by every

There is essentially zero evidence that SARS-CoV2 was engineered in a lab. In any case, the evidence that it's natural born doesn't have to be believed by everyone, only by Rees and Pinker. Then again, 2020 still has 21 days left to fuck us one more time. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/05/scientists-exactly-zero-evidence-covid-19-came-lab https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/05/scientis... https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/09/coronavirus-origins-misinformation-yan-report-fact-check-cvd/ https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/09/coronavir...

creato 6y ago
Nothing in the parent post claims it was "engineered in a lab". Being accidentally released from a lab is not inconsistent with being "natural born". I think this is still highly unlikely, but it is annoying seeing people talking past each other on this point.
- staplung 6y ago
  True, but for the purposes of the bet, you'd have to effectively _prove_ that it escaped from a lab, which seems virtually impossible. In any case, the linked articles talk about that possibility too. Then again one could make the argument that incompetence in the world's collective response to the pandemic is "bioerror" although again, the debate and terminology only really have to be resolved by the two bettors.
  - est31 6y ago
    There is a huge outdoors lab where we run a gigantic experiment "what happens when humans encroach on natural habitats of mammals on a never seen before scale and humans also are highly mobile, able to spread novel diseases across the globe before they even get discovered or their severity assessed?".
  - breck 6y ago
    > Then again one could make the argument that incompetence in the world's collective response to the pandemic is "bioerror Pinker specifically spells this out: "I assume a mere lack of preparedness doesn't count)" So I think it would have to be agreed with >50% likelihood that it was released by a Chinese lab or some similar error for Pinker to lose.
    - garmaine 6y ago
      The incontrovertible facts are that deliberate and/or grossly negligent actions caused COVID to spread as far as it has. That’s a step beyond “a mere lack of preparedness”, so it’s not clear what the outcome should be.
      - breck 6y ago
        Haha I won't argue with you there :).
DuskStar 6y ago
"released from a lab" and "engineered in a lab" are two different things. Leaking a sample you took from some cave full of bats is one but not the other.
- infogulch 6y ago
  The standard for the bet here is "bioerror" not "bioengineered". I think both of these cases would be covered under "rises from inadvertance rather than evil intent".
- Reason077 6y ago
  What was that quote from Contagion (2011)? “Someone doesn't have to weaponize the bird flu. The birds are already doing that.” In the case of SARS-CoV-2, we know how contagious it is. In all likelihood, spreading it didn’t need any help from a lab.
- souprock 6y ago
  Taking "engineered in a lab" to mean modern genetic technology, there are possibilities beyond that and all-natural. Remember that we modified wild polio to create a vaccine many decades ago, long before modern genetic technology. Passing bat viruses through human cell lines would not leave any kind of mark to indicate intentional modification.
jkhdigital 6y ago
I'd qualify that statement. There is zero hard forensic evidence that it existed in a lab somewhere before the uncontrolled outbreak. If such evidence did exist, the PRC would never let it see the light of day anyway. There is, however, plenty of circumstantial evidence. Remember that guy who said we should treat the Hunter Biden story as if it was a foreign disinfo op, even if it probably isn't? Yeah, that was crazy, but I actually see similar logic here. If the virus was engineered, that's really really bad for the world. It's like Iran suddenly making a nuke under everyone's nose... except if Iran had the largest population and largest economy in the world. It's so insanely important that even a tiny chance that it is true--like 0.1%--is enough to warrant strong diplomatic pressure on China to be totally transparent about the early days of the virus. As someone else pointed out, it doesn't have to be engineered--China has already shown that it has a cache of previously unrevealed viral samples, so it could also just be a natural virus found on one of Dr. Shi's hunting expeditions that got loose from the lab.

creato 6y ago

Nothing in the parent post claims it was "engineered in a lab". Being accidentally released from a lab is not inconsistent with being "natural born". I think this is still highly unlikely, but it is annoying seeing people talking past each other on this point.

staplung 6y ago
True, but for the purposes of the bet, you'd have to effectively _prove_ that it escaped from a lab, which seems virtually impossible. In any case, the linked articles talk about that possibility too. Then again one could make the argument that incompetence in the world's collective response to the pandemic is "bioerror" although again, the debate and terminology only really have to be resolved by the two bettors.
- est31 6y ago
  There is a huge outdoors lab where we run a gigantic experiment "what happens when humans encroach on natural habitats of mammals on a never seen before scale and humans also are highly mobile, able to spread novel diseases across the globe before they even get discovered or their severity assessed?".
- breck 6y ago
  > Then again one could make the argument that incompetence in the world's collective response to the pandemic is "bioerror Pinker specifically spells this out: "I assume a mere lack of preparedness doesn't count)" So I think it would have to be agreed with >50% likelihood that it was released by a Chinese lab or some similar error for Pinker to lose.
  - garmaine 6y ago
    The incontrovertible facts are that deliberate and/or grossly negligent actions caused COVID to spread as far as it has. That’s a step beyond “a mere lack of preparedness”, so it’s not clear what the outcome should be.
    - breck 6y ago
      Haha I won't argue with you there :).

DuskStar 6y ago

"released from a lab" and "engineered in a lab" are two different things. Leaking a sample you took from some cave full of bats is one but not the other.

infogulch 6y ago
The standard for the bet here is "bioerror" not "bioengineered". I think both of these cases would be covered under "rises from inadvertance rather than evil intent".
Reason077 6y ago
What was that quote from Contagion (2011)? “Someone doesn't have to weaponize the bird flu. The birds are already doing that.” In the case of SARS-CoV-2, we know how contagious it is. In all likelihood, spreading it didn’t need any help from a lab.
souprock 6y ago
Taking "engineered in a lab" to mean modern genetic technology, there are possibilities beyond that and all-natural. Remember that we modified wild polio to create a vaccine many decades ago, long before modern genetic technology. Passing bat viruses through human cell lines would not leave any kind of mark to indicate intentional modification.

jkhdigital 6y ago

I'd qualify that statement. There is zero hard forensic evidence that it existed in a lab somewhere before the uncontrolled outbreak. If such evidence did exist, the PRC would never let it see the light of day anyway. There is, however, plenty of circumstantial evidence. Remember that guy who said we should treat the Hunter Biden story as if it was a foreign disinfo op, even if it probably isn't? Yeah, that was crazy, but I actually see similar logic here. If the virus was engineered, that's really really bad for the world. It's like Iran suddenly making a nuke under everyone's nose... except if Iran had the largest population and largest economy in the world. It's so insanely important that even a tiny chance that it is true--like 0.1%--is enough to warrant strong diplomatic pressure on China to be totally transparent about the early days of the virus. As someone else pointed out, it doesn't have to be engineered--China has already shown that it has a cache of previously unrevealed viral samples, so it could also just be a natural virus found on one of Dr. Shi's hunting expeditions that got loose from the lab.