I'm a SpaceX fan, and I hear your arguments so let me give one aspect of the other side: I think you and I are in a bet about whether progress for Starship is

I'm a SpaceX fan, and I hear your arguments so let me give one aspect of the other side: I think you and I are in a bet about whether progress for Starship is going to be roughly linear or exponential. Obviously I'm betting emotionally on the latter. Granted I could go on and on about the facts that I think back up my assessment, but in the end I think you and I both know it really comes down to hunches, doesn't it? My hunch is that your argument is the equivalent of Steve Ballmer's famous •shrug* about the iPhone. But I could be wrong, of course.