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I've been giving the wrong answer to "Should I buy Bitcoin" since 2011 or so. I was bearish on Amazon when its stock was at 60 because its P/E ratio was ridicul

I've been giving the wrong answer to "Should I buy Bitcoin" since 2011 or so. I was bearish on Amazon when its stock was at 60 because its P/E ratio was ridiculous. I've learned to just be comfortable with the fact that I'm wrong a lot.

TylerE 6y ago
You're not necessarily wrong. It's a long held truism that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
- dllthomas 6y ago
  If you're right about what the market should, rationally do, and it does something else, you were still wrong.
  - dllthomas 6y ago
    I think I successfully communicated, and I'm getting upvoted, but my wording was imprecise. Would that I could edit to add: "[...] if you thought that is what it would do."
- chillacy 6y ago
  Either one is right or the market is irrational? Seems like by that logic one can never really be proven wrong.
  - TylerE 6y ago
    You can be right, the market can be wrong, and then the market can crash before you can exit the position. Imagine, for instance, trying to get actual USD (NOT USDT!) for BTC when that fever dream ends.
    - ric2b 6y ago
      You can get USD for BTC right now, you've been able to get if for nearly a decade and there have never been as many reputable exchanges as there are now.
      - TylerE 6y ago
        The exchanges tend to "go down for maintenance" on any big price swing.
        mthoms 6y ago
        Evidence? I've been in crypto a long time and have never experienced this. I'm not saying it's never happened, but implying it's some sort of repeating pattern is simply false.
        TylerE 6y ago
        https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-exchanges-overwhelmed-on-bitcoins-most-volatile-day-of-the-year/ https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-exchanges-overwhelmed-on-bit... https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/05/20/sudden-major-outage-sparks-serious-bitcoin-exchange-warning/?sh=c159e383a706 https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/05/20/sudde... https://cryptopotato.com/bitfinex-offline-goes-in-unscheduled-maintenance-on-the-day-bitcoin-crashes-2000/ https://cryptopotato.com/bitfinex-offline-goes-in-unschedule...
        mthoms 6y ago
        You said they "tend go down for maintenance" on "any big price swings" but were only able to muster one example of one exchange going down "for maintenance" on one price swing (Bitfinex). The others, as the articles point out, were trade volume related (which is also a problem, but much less sinister). There's no evidence this is some kind of grand conspiracy like you implied. There's plenty to criticise in Crypto, but little evidence for what you actually claimed.
- zelly 6y ago
  that's just delusion and cope. if the price keeps going up for years, then no matter what you think you're wrong. the market isn't being irrational, you are.
hawk_ 6y ago
If you're consistently wrong there's alpha even in that, just doing the opposite would work wonders.
Calamity 6y ago
hahaha, don't sweat it mate. I'm right along there with you. I was surrounded by people dropping buckets of cash for GPUs back at the dawn of deep learning and was therefore naturally tempted to buy Nvidia's stock price (30$ at the time). In the end, I shied away due to the high PE too. I take solace in the fact that some of biggest regrets or mistakes that Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger say they have made are those that you don't see - the deals they could have done but didn't and, in retrospect, should have.

TylerE 6y ago

You're not necessarily wrong. It's a long held truism that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

dllthomas 6y ago
If you're right about what the market should, rationally do, and it does something else, you were still wrong.
- dllthomas 6y ago
  I think I successfully communicated, and I'm getting upvoted, but my wording was imprecise. Would that I could edit to add: "[...] if you thought that is what it would do."
chillacy 6y ago
Either one is right or the market is irrational? Seems like by that logic one can never really be proven wrong.
- TylerE 6y ago
  You can be right, the market can be wrong, and then the market can crash before you can exit the position. Imagine, for instance, trying to get actual USD (NOT USDT!) for BTC when that fever dream ends.
  - ric2b 6y ago
    You can get USD for BTC right now, you've been able to get if for nearly a decade and there have never been as many reputable exchanges as there are now.
    - TylerE 6y ago
      The exchanges tend to "go down for maintenance" on any big price swing.
      - mthoms 6y ago
        Evidence? I've been in crypto a long time and have never experienced this. I'm not saying it's never happened, but implying it's some sort of repeating pattern is simply false.
        TylerE 6y ago
        https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-exchanges-overwhelmed-on-bitcoins-most-volatile-day-of-the-year/ https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-exchanges-overwhelmed-on-bit... https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/05/20/sudden-major-outage-sparks-serious-bitcoin-exchange-warning/?sh=c159e383a706 https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/05/20/sudde... https://cryptopotato.com/bitfinex-offline-goes-in-unscheduled-maintenance-on-the-day-bitcoin-crashes-2000/ https://cryptopotato.com/bitfinex-offline-goes-in-unschedule...
        mthoms 6y ago
        You said they "tend go down for maintenance" on "any big price swings" but were only able to muster one example of one exchange going down "for maintenance" on one price swing (Bitfinex). The others, as the articles point out, were trade volume related (which is also a problem, but much less sinister). There's no evidence this is some kind of grand conspiracy like you implied. There's plenty to criticise in Crypto, but little evidence for what you actually claimed.
zelly 6y ago
that's just delusion and cope. if the price keeps going up for years, then no matter what you think you're wrong. the market isn't being irrational, you are.

hawk_ 6y ago

If you're consistently wrong there's alpha even in that, just doing the opposite would work wonders.

Calamity 6y ago

hahaha, don't sweat it mate. I'm right along there with you. I was surrounded by people dropping buckets of cash for GPUs back at the dawn of deep learning and was therefore naturally tempted to buy Nvidia's stock price (30$ at the time). In the end, I shied away due to the high PE too. I take solace in the fact that some of biggest regrets or mistakes that Warren Buffet & Charlie Munger say they have made are those that you don't see - the deals they could have done but didn't and, in retrospect, should have.