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We will look back at 2020 and we'll think it was not such a lousy year. I personally consider that Covid19 was a godsend. Everyone (including Gates) were saying

We will look back at 2020 and we'll think it was not such a lousy year. I personally consider that Covid19 was a godsend. Everyone (including Gates) were saying that a pandemic is not a matter of if but rather of when. And one came. But remember, we have a flu pandemic every single year. For a pandemic to be registered as serious, it has to be more lethal than flu. And Covid19 was, but not by so much. It was quite the minimum extra-lethality needed to shake people into action. And we did act. We saw how bad we are at preparedness (I mean, if the famous "stockpile" doesn't have N95s, then what does it have?). It exposed so many holes. But then Pfizer and Moderna pulled the miracle. What they have done is not just come up with the vaccine for Covid, but they have broken the 4-minute mile of vaccines. Shattered it. Like going from 4:05 to 0:35. When the next one will come (and come it will), a 10-month sequencing-to-EUA cycle will be the target to beat. Not a 5-year timeline. Will we be able to have a vaccine in 6 months, or maybe 3 months? That's not entirely inconceivable now. So, sure we've paid a dear price in blood with this Covid19, but it could have been much, much, much worse. And when the truly bad one will come, we'll be so much more prepared.

mrtranscendence 6y ago
> it has to be more lethal than flu. And Covid19 was, but not by so much. COVID-19 is five times deadlier than the flu. It's killed over 1.5 million people worldwide, and almost 300,000 people in my home country (USA). It'll be many months before enough people are vaccinated to ensure herd immunity, if it ever happens. Yeah, I suppose it could improve outcomes for an even deadlier next time, but calling it a godsend seems queasily rosy.
- credit_guy 6y ago
  I would say it's probably more than five times deadlier than the flu. In 2018 about 60k people died because of "influenza and pneumonia" [1], so 300k deaths due to Covid is five times worse, but that's with some quite strict lockdowns. Without lockdowns it's anybody's guess, but twice as many deaths doesn't appear outrageous. That said, what "flu multiple" would have scared people into action? Even now, in December there are surprisingly many people in denial, up until the last moments of their lives. There are people who think this whole Covid is only a conspiracy (did you hear the one about "Gates' vaccine" which is actually just a way to inject people with nanorobots?). If Covid was only twice as deadly as the flu, would the Congress have passed the CARES act in 2 weeks? Maybe they would've if it was exactly 2.85 times as deadly as the flu, but we'll never know. What we know is that we all die one day or another. In a regular year 2.8 to 2.9 million people die in the US. 300k is 10% of that. That's bad, and every single death is a tragedy, but this was no Bubonic Plague. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
- notacoward 6y ago
  Also, fatality rates aren't the only basis for comparison. COVID-19 seems to be leaving survivors with serious long-term and quite possibly permanent damage at many many times the rate that flu does. More like polio than flu, not least in that it was the survivors who reminded everyone day after day of how serious it was.
atty 6y ago
I’ve lost multiple acquaintances, and my significant other works at a hospital that has been slammed with COVID patients for over 6 months, and she is so burnt out and so tired everyday, and there’s nothing I can do to help her. Your assertion that this is a godsend rings very hollow to me. Of course we have and will continue to learn from this, but that doesn’t mean this is a good thing.

mrtranscendence 6y ago

> it has to be more lethal than flu. And Covid19 was, but not by so much. COVID-19 is five times deadlier than the flu. It's killed over 1.5 million people worldwide, and almost 300,000 people in my home country (USA). It'll be many months before enough people are vaccinated to ensure herd immunity, if it ever happens. Yeah, I suppose it could improve outcomes for an even deadlier next time, but calling it a godsend seems queasily rosy.

credit_guy 6y ago
I would say it's probably more than five times deadlier than the flu. In 2018 about 60k people died because of "influenza and pneumonia" [1], so 300k deaths due to Covid is five times worse, but that's with some quite strict lockdowns. Without lockdowns it's anybody's guess, but twice as many deaths doesn't appear outrageous. That said, what "flu multiple" would have scared people into action? Even now, in December there are surprisingly many people in denial, up until the last moments of their lives. There are people who think this whole Covid is only a conspiracy (did you hear the one about "Gates' vaccine" which is actually just a way to inject people with nanorobots?). If Covid was only twice as deadly as the flu, would the Congress have passed the CARES act in 2 weeks? Maybe they would've if it was exactly 2.85 times as deadly as the flu, but we'll never know. What we know is that we all die one day or another. In a regular year 2.8 to 2.9 million people die in the US. 300k is 10% of that. That's bad, and every single death is a tragedy, but this was no Bubonic Plague. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
notacoward 6y ago
Also, fatality rates aren't the only basis for comparison. COVID-19 seems to be leaving survivors with serious long-term and quite possibly permanent damage at many many times the rate that flu does. More like polio than flu, not least in that it was the survivors who reminded everyone day after day of how serious it was.

atty 6y ago

I’ve lost multiple acquaintances, and my significant other works at a hospital that has been slammed with COVID patients for over 6 months, and she is so burnt out and so tired everyday, and there’s nothing I can do to help her. Your assertion that this is a godsend rings very hollow to me. Of course we have and will continue to learn from this, but that doesn’t mean this is a good thing.