4 ms·

It distorts many aspects of governance. People don't move because there's a tax hike proportionate to how long you've lived there, so there's less turnover in

It distorts many aspects of governance. People don't move because there's a tax hike proportionate to how long you've lived there, so there's less turnover in housing, meaning less supply, meaning higher prices. It puts a hard, long term, effectively permanent cap on tax growth, so cities must plan for everything to continually get leaner. Cities make land use and zoning decisions based on uses that are net contributors to revenue, vs net costs. What is a net cost? Housing in general, especially housing that might contain school aged children - that's why 3+ bedroom apartments are so much more rare. What are net contributors? Offices and retail. So the places with demand get to pick, and SF and the Peninsula restrict housing as much as they can and have a huge concentration of offices. Places on the outskirts (e.g. Dublin, Livermore, Gilbert, Brentwood) are allowing housing to be built because they're trying to turn nothing into something, but any established, and especially built-out city, has a strong financial incentive not to admit a single additional resident to live there, while encouraging everyone they can to shop and work there.

kelnos 6y ago
How do we get rid of Prop 13? Supporting repeal is a political death sentence for anyone in local or state office. Homeowners of course love it (even when it has negative effects on them), and renters tend to be less politically active. What kind of campaign would it take to do this?
- pchristensen 6y ago
  It's a constitutional amendment, so it would take another amendment to overturn it. It has created its own positive feedback cycle for support, because its beneficiaries are long-term residents, which means older older and wealthier people, who vote more. If a) your rent isn't going up, because you own and your taxes are fixed, and b) your kids are old enough to be out of school, and c) you live closer to work because you bought when the areas were less developed, then you're insulated from the 3 main problems that Prop 13 creates. Those who would benefit from its repeal - renters, people who moved out, people who choose not to move to CA in the first place because of cost and governance, children, etc, either don't vote as consistently or can't vote in CA at all.
- somethoughts 6y ago
  The way to have a shot would be to have a ballot which simultaneously gets rid of Prop 13 property tax caps (and increases property taxes) while capping income tax. If you are going to increase property taxes then people are going to want to see corresponding decreases in income tax.
  - rcpt 6y ago
    That would just barely appease one argument from the "taxation is theft" crowd. I really don't think it gets repeal much closer.
- yonran 6y ago
  In case you were unaware, there were two proposed constitutional amendments that would reduce Proposition 13 benefits this past November: Proposition 15 (which would have eliminated commercial property tax breaks) failed 48%-52%. I think its biggest political flaw is probably the fact that it would apply July 1, 2022, with no phase-in for small businesses whose lease passes through the property tax. So hopefully in November 2022 another attempt can be made that addresses the political shortcomings. Proposition 19 (which eliminated tax breaks for inherited investment property in exchange for increased tax portability for the elderly) only barely passed 51%-49%, and that was after it received overwhelming support from the legislature, and a $45 million advertising campaign from the California Association of Realtors that some people criticized for only highlighting the goodies for old people and not the costs for inheritors. No one is attempting a full repeal of Proposition 13 including residential property. It could also be attacked judicially; see this episode of the Henry George Program for a discussion of Nordlinger v Hahn and whether different legal arguments could be tried (e.g. does Proposition 13 impinge on the American freedom to migrate under the US Constitution?) http://seethecat.org/ep/2017-07-11.html http://seethecat.org/ep/2017-07-11.html
- notnap 6y ago
  renters in Bay Area are on h1b visa and don't have the right to vote. Speaking of modern age colonialism
- rcpt 6y ago
  Nordlinger v Hahn was the best attempt. I believe it could be revisited on the grounds that Prop 13 primarily benefits white families (makes sense -- they were the only ones buying property 40 years ago). There is now good data on the racial disparities in our current tax law and with enough money I think another lawsuit has a chance. https://twitter.com/alfred_twu/status/1327821019931787264?s=21 https://twitter.com/alfred_twu/status/1327821019931787264?s=...

kelnos 6y ago

How do we get rid of Prop 13? Supporting repeal is a political death sentence for anyone in local or state office. Homeowners of course love it (even when it has negative effects on them), and renters tend to be less politically active. What kind of campaign would it take to do this?

pchristensen 6y ago
It's a constitutional amendment, so it would take another amendment to overturn it. It has created its own positive feedback cycle for support, because its beneficiaries are long-term residents, which means older older and wealthier people, who vote more. If a) your rent isn't going up, because you own and your taxes are fixed, and b) your kids are old enough to be out of school, and c) you live closer to work because you bought when the areas were less developed, then you're insulated from the 3 main problems that Prop 13 creates. Those who would benefit from its repeal - renters, people who moved out, people who choose not to move to CA in the first place because of cost and governance, children, etc, either don't vote as consistently or can't vote in CA at all.
somethoughts 6y ago
The way to have a shot would be to have a ballot which simultaneously gets rid of Prop 13 property tax caps (and increases property taxes) while capping income tax. If you are going to increase property taxes then people are going to want to see corresponding decreases in income tax.
- rcpt 6y ago
  That would just barely appease one argument from the "taxation is theft" crowd. I really don't think it gets repeal much closer.
yonran 6y ago
In case you were unaware, there were two proposed constitutional amendments that would reduce Proposition 13 benefits this past November: Proposition 15 (which would have eliminated commercial property tax breaks) failed 48%-52%. I think its biggest political flaw is probably the fact that it would apply July 1, 2022, with no phase-in for small businesses whose lease passes through the property tax. So hopefully in November 2022 another attempt can be made that addresses the political shortcomings. Proposition 19 (which eliminated tax breaks for inherited investment property in exchange for increased tax portability for the elderly) only barely passed 51%-49%, and that was after it received overwhelming support from the legislature, and a $45 million advertising campaign from the California Association of Realtors that some people criticized for only highlighting the goodies for old people and not the costs for inheritors. No one is attempting a full repeal of Proposition 13 including residential property. It could also be attacked judicially; see this episode of the Henry George Program for a discussion of Nordlinger v Hahn and whether different legal arguments could be tried (e.g. does Proposition 13 impinge on the American freedom to migrate under the US Constitution?) http://seethecat.org/ep/2017-07-11.html http://seethecat.org/ep/2017-07-11.html
notnap 6y ago
renters in Bay Area are on h1b visa and don't have the right to vote. Speaking of modern age colonialism
rcpt 6y ago
Nordlinger v Hahn was the best attempt. I believe it could be revisited on the grounds that Prop 13 primarily benefits white families (makes sense -- they were the only ones buying property 40 years ago). There is now good data on the racial disparities in our current tax law and with enough money I think another lawsuit has a chance. https://twitter.com/alfred_twu/status/1327821019931787264?s=21 https://twitter.com/alfred_twu/status/1327821019931787264?s=...