10 ms·

Only 14 out of 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Given how Hong Kong was forced to bend the knee recently, I'd say this is a reasonable

Only 14 out of 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Given how Hong Kong was forced to bend the knee recently, I'd say this is a reasonable worry.

chokeartist 6y ago
Will never happen. One reason: Three Gorges Dam, specifically that Taiwan has vaguely threatened to strike it first, if they were ever invaded. China could take Taiwan, easily. Likewise, Taiwan could cause 5M to 10M dead Chongers, easily.
abrowne 6y ago
But many do provide support "unofficially". And HK was already under "one country, two systems", while Taiwan is de facto independent even if the PRC claims it.
- jonplackett 6y ago
  They're just saying it's a worry. The point is if China decide to do this, there isn't anyone who can stop them.
  - JohnJamesRambo 6y ago
    There will be quite a few people that stop them.
    - LunaSea 6y ago
      Like they did for Hong Kong?
      - MangoCoffee 6y ago
        HK doesn't have its own military. its a 99 yrs lease to UK that UK hand back. Taiwan's history is complicated. it have its own military. its people pay taxes to Taiwan, not China. Taiwan's safety is its own responsibility. its more than possible that China can take Taiwan by force but at what price. its not like Taiwan's military have no teeth.
      - Apocryphon 6y ago
        A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be war between two advanced industrialized economies that is unprecedented in modern times since perhaps the end of WWII. It's not comparable to the PRC government reaffirming their dominance over territory they already had control over. At the very least, China would be hit with many sanctions in the event of such a conflict.
      - ClumsyPilot 6y ago
        Absurd comparison. HK was returned to China in accordance with a previously signed contract. After it became part of China again, it is not possible to interviene militarily in Beijing - HK relationship - that would be an invasion of China and violation of international law. You could not phisically station an army in HK. Even if China has violated an agreement with UK regarding HK autonomy, thay does not give you legal grounds to start a war. In cotrast, you could deploy the entire US military in Taiwan tomorrow, it would be legal and peacefull (provided Taiwanese Gov. Invited it). Additionally, invading Taiwan is actually extremely difficult because of terrain, just because you have a massive land army does not mean they can just teleport to Taiwan. It would be basically a D-day style effort against a well entrenched opponent. So it is unlikely we will see phisical takeover of Taiwan in the near future, as so far we have no indication that China is looming for a causualty heavy war with little gain.
newsclues 6y ago
And yet the US military essentially safeguards Taiwan, and will continue to do so for the American business interests in TSMC.
- oblio 6y ago
  ... in 2020. What will happen in 2040, when the Chinese economy is double the US one?
  - viktorcode 6y ago
    Economies don't develop by linear growth extrapolation.
    - est31 6y ago
      China's economy with all its issues has definitely far more potential for growth left than the EU or the USA... It's still a developing country for the most part. Better learn Chinese if you want to stay relevant in 30 years... wait better learn it now. In the hardware world, Documentation about new chips etc. is increasingly available in Chinese first.
      - elefanten 6y ago
        Which chips?
    - whimsicalism 6y ago
      > Economies don't develop by linear growth extrapolation. This is true, but I view China's economic growth more as 'reversion to the mean' when their population is 3x that of the US.
  - MangoCoffee 6y ago
    Taiwan have it own military. Taiwan never rely on any country for its own defensive.
    - 6y ago

Only 14 out of 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Given how Hong Kong was forced to bend the knee recently, I'd say this is a reasonable worry.

chokeartist 6y ago

Will never happen. One reason: Three Gorges Dam, specifically that Taiwan has vaguely threatened to strike it first, if they were ever invaded. China could take Taiwan, easily. Likewise, Taiwan could cause 5M to 10M dead Chongers, easily.

abrowne 6y ago

But many do provide support "unofficially". And HK was already under "one country, two systems", while Taiwan is de facto independent even if the PRC claims it.

jonplackett 6y ago
They're just saying it's a worry. The point is if China decide to do this, there isn't anyone who can stop them.
- JohnJamesRambo 6y ago
  There will be quite a few people that stop them.
  - LunaSea 6y ago
    Like they did for Hong Kong?
    - MangoCoffee 6y ago
      HK doesn't have its own military. its a 99 yrs lease to UK that UK hand back. Taiwan's history is complicated. it have its own military. its people pay taxes to Taiwan, not China. Taiwan's safety is its own responsibility. its more than possible that China can take Taiwan by force but at what price. its not like Taiwan's military have no teeth.
    - Apocryphon 6y ago
      A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be war between two advanced industrialized economies that is unprecedented in modern times since perhaps the end of WWII. It's not comparable to the PRC government reaffirming their dominance over territory they already had control over. At the very least, China would be hit with many sanctions in the event of such a conflict.
    - ClumsyPilot 6y ago
      Absurd comparison. HK was returned to China in accordance with a previously signed contract. After it became part of China again, it is not possible to interviene militarily in Beijing - HK relationship - that would be an invasion of China and violation of international law. You could not phisically station an army in HK. Even if China has violated an agreement with UK regarding HK autonomy, thay does not give you legal grounds to start a war. In cotrast, you could deploy the entire US military in Taiwan tomorrow, it would be legal and peacefull (provided Taiwanese Gov. Invited it). Additionally, invading Taiwan is actually extremely difficult because of terrain, just because you have a massive land army does not mean they can just teleport to Taiwan. It would be basically a D-day style effort against a well entrenched opponent. So it is unlikely we will see phisical takeover of Taiwan in the near future, as so far we have no indication that China is looming for a causualty heavy war with little gain.

newsclues 6y ago

And yet the US military essentially safeguards Taiwan, and will continue to do so for the American business interests in TSMC.

oblio 6y ago
... in 2020. What will happen in 2040, when the Chinese economy is double the US one?
- viktorcode 6y ago
  Economies don't develop by linear growth extrapolation.
  - est31 6y ago
    China's economy with all its issues has definitely far more potential for growth left than the EU or the USA... It's still a developing country for the most part. Better learn Chinese if you want to stay relevant in 30 years... wait better learn it now. In the hardware world, Documentation about new chips etc. is increasingly available in Chinese first.
    - elefanten 6y ago
      Which chips?
  - whimsicalism 6y ago
    > Economies don't develop by linear growth extrapolation. This is true, but I view China's economic growth more as 'reversion to the mean' when their population is 3x that of the US.
- MangoCoffee 6y ago
  Taiwan have it own military. Taiwan never rely on any country for its own defensive.
  - 6y ago