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Won't batteries run into the Lithium problem? I heard somewhere that the global Lithium reserves allow us to convert the entire car fleet of humanity to electri

by est31 6y ago

Won't batteries run into the Lithium problem? I heard somewhere that the global Lithium reserves allow us to convert the entire car fleet of humanity to electric, but not anything beyond that, certainly not allowing large scale battery deployments that would make a dent.

Retric 6y ago
There’s more lithium in earths crust than Lead yet we mine ~50x as much lead. The only limitation on mining lithium is how concentrated is making it more or less expensive to extract. Currently raw Lithium is extremely cheap, it’s highly refined battery grade lithium that’s somewhat expensive. Rank 33: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth...
- est31 6y ago
  Abundance in the crust is one thing, ability to mine it is another. That's why you need to look at reserves [0] instead of resources. And there are way more lead reserves (88 million tons in 2016 [1]) than lithium ones (17 million tons [2]). [0]: https://newpacificmetals.com/mining-101/mineral-estimates-reserves-vs-resources https://newpacificmetals.com/mining-101/mineral-estimates-re... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead#On_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead#On_Earth [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves
  - Retric 6y ago
    Proven reserves are dependent on actual mining. “Worldwide lithium resources identified by USGS started to increase in 2017 owing to continuing exploration. Identified resources in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 41, 47, 54, 62 and 80 million tonnes, respectively.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves There is little to suggest this trend will suddenly stop unless we simply stop looking. Further, a 5x increase in lithium has minimal impact on the long term EV or grid storage economics. That’s a lot of wiggle room for more expensive extraction.
    - est31 6y ago
      Not sure if you've seen my edited version of the comment or replied to the earlier version. There is a distinction between resources and reserves.
      - Retric 6y ago
        That’s my point, resources are probable sources of economically extractable resources. It’s mostly a long term vs short term question, so limiting things to reserves vastly underestimates availability in 2040+. Even resources is an underestimation as again it’s based on economic assumptions that are quite flexible. New technology for example can change what’s considered economically feasible.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - beowulfey 6y ago
    Because a single molecule of lead is significantly heavier than a molecule of lithium, that’s technically an order of magnitude more lithium. 2.22E12 moles of lithium vs. 3.85E11 moles of lead.
elihu 6y ago
I think at the moment cobalt is more of a constraining resource (though not all rechargeable battery chemistries require cobalt).
- to11mtm 6y ago
  The 'best' ones currently do, which is the challenge. To wit; LiFePO4 (I don't know how to do subscript on HN, sorry) chemistries aren't exotic, and tend to be more 'stable'. But, you lose about 14% capacity per volume. [0] [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery#Safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery...
epistasis 6y ago
There are concerted misinformation campaigns out there against anything that upsets the existing, and lazy, powers that control fossil fuels. One of my favorite debunkers of these terrible rumors and studies is Auke Hoestra. One of his more recent debunkings, in addition to being very wrong on the facts, was funded by a shell of Aston Martin, and shilled without criticism by several "journalists" in UK papers: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/astongate-fake-emission-figures-embattled-carmaker-sock-liebreich https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/astongate-fake-emission-figur... Those in the renewable industry are too busy building to mount much of a defense. Perhaps once they've become rich and indolent they can start acting this way. Also, as a side note, a typical electric car battery is enough to power the typical US house for three days. Three days of storage is probably more than we will need to get to 100% renewable energy. The very idea of converting cars to electric entails an amount of batteries that most skeptics will say is impossible. Yet we know it won't be that hard, as new reserves are developed all the time.

by est31 6y ago

Retric 6y ago

There’s more lithium in earths crust than Lead yet we mine ~50x as much lead. The only limitation on mining lithium is how concentrated is making it more or less expensive to extract. Currently raw Lithium is extremely cheap, it’s highly refined battery grade lithium that’s somewhat expensive. Rank 33: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth...

est31 6y ago
Abundance in the crust is one thing, ability to mine it is another. That's why you need to look at reserves [0] instead of resources. And there are way more lead reserves (88 million tons in 2016 [1]) than lithium ones (17 million tons [2]). [0]: https://newpacificmetals.com/mining-101/mineral-estimates-reserves-vs-resources https://newpacificmetals.com/mining-101/mineral-estimates-re... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead#On_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead#On_Earth [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves
- Retric 6y ago
  Proven reserves are dependent on actual mining. “Worldwide lithium resources identified by USGS started to increase in 2017 owing to continuing exploration. Identified resources in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 41, 47, 54, 62 and 80 million tonnes, respectively.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves There is little to suggest this trend will suddenly stop unless we simply stop looking. Further, a 5x increase in lithium has minimal impact on the long term EV or grid storage economics. That’s a lot of wiggle room for more expensive extraction.
  - est31 6y ago
    Not sure if you've seen my edited version of the comment or replied to the earlier version. There is a distinction between resources and reserves.
    - Retric 6y ago
      That’s my point, resources are probable sources of economically extractable resources. It’s mostly a long term vs short term question, so limiting things to reserves vastly underestimates availability in 2040+. Even resources is an underestimation as again it’s based on economic assumptions that are quite flexible. New technology for example can change what’s considered economically feasible.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- beowulfey 6y ago
  Because a single molecule of lead is significantly heavier than a molecule of lithium, that’s technically an order of magnitude more lithium. 2.22E12 moles of lithium vs. 3.85E11 moles of lead.

elihu 6y ago

I think at the moment cobalt is more of a constraining resource (though not all rechargeable battery chemistries require cobalt).

to11mtm 6y ago
The 'best' ones currently do, which is the challenge. To wit; LiFePO4 (I don't know how to do subscript on HN, sorry) chemistries aren't exotic, and tend to be more 'stable'. But, you lose about 14% capacity per volume. [0] [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery#Safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium_iron_phosphate_battery...

epistasis 6y ago

There are concerted misinformation campaigns out there against anything that upsets the existing, and lazy, powers that control fossil fuels. One of my favorite debunkers of these terrible rumors and studies is Auke Hoestra. One of his more recent debunkings, in addition to being very wrong on the facts, was funded by a shell of Aston Martin, and shilled without criticism by several "journalists" in UK papers: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/astongate-fake-emission-figures-embattled-carmaker-sock-liebreich https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/astongate-fake-emission-figur... Those in the renewable industry are too busy building to mount much of a defense. Perhaps once they've become rich and indolent they can start acting this way. Also, as a side note, a typical electric car battery is enough to power the typical US house for three days. Three days of storage is probably more than we will need to get to 100% renewable energy. The very idea of converting cars to electric entails an amount of batteries that most skeptics will say is impossible. Yet we know it won't be that hard, as new reserves are developed all the time.