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One interesting interpretation: some folk say that if you make money in the market it's because you drove the market towards efficiency. If you bought low and s
by repsilat 6y ago
One interesting interpretation: some folk say that if you make money in the market it's because you drove the market towards efficiency. If you bought low and sold high (control for inflation/rates/dividends/whatever) your purchase pulled up the price when you bought and pushed down the price when you sold, and the "time-traveller's arbitrage" was reduced.
Say a company will live for 1 year, pay no dividend and perform no buybacks, but has some stock price. Say -X(X-1), so it starts at price=0 at t=0, ends at price=0 at t=1, and has positive but illogical/inefficient positive prices in between up to a maximum of p=0.25 at t=0.5.
Now, someone who bought then sold on the up-slope -- with price impact -- would make money but increase the difference between the price curve and "true value" (which is the equation p=0.) But if you iterated those buying and selling operations with time-travelling argitrageurs, the realised value would eventually be the true value. The price curve would be p=0.
So, in conclusion, maybe "all investing is value investing" is false under this interpretation, but true if there are time travellers involved. (There is almost certainly a more charitable phrasing.)
Thank you for attending my TED Talk.