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Just follow the HD and LOW tickers. They had an incredible volume ever since the pandemic started. Which makes sense. Many people still have their jobs and inc
by outworlder 6y ago
Just follow the HD and LOW tickers. They had an incredible volume ever since the pandemic started.
Which makes sense. Many people still have their jobs and income. But now are spending more time than ever inside their own houses. Not traveling, and for the most part, not dining out or otherwise spending money elsewhere.
So it makes sense that, if you are in the home remodeling business, you are seeing lots of activity. Also why USPS, UPS and Fedex are overloaded. And the reason PC parts are rarer than gold. TVs flew off the (virtual) shelves on Black Friday. And so on.
The problem is: many people did lose their income. So on one hand you see an incredible influx of customers remodeling homes and spending money on superfluous things, on the other hand you see people becoming homeless, or relying on food banks for the first time in their lives.
This is not like a recession. Some activities have essentially stopped, other are on overdrive. This will create an enormous imbalance, which could bring a recession (long predicted) even after COVID is done. Assuming we can get rid of it.
- jdhn 6y agoMy prediction is that we're not going to see a recession after COVID is done. Interest rates are going to stay low/go even lower in order to goose the economy into "recovery". The activities that are in overdrive will slow down as money is pulled from them and redirected elsewhere.
- outworlder 6y agoI hope you are right. But if I've learned anything this year is that the market (and worse yet, the stock market) tends to overcorrect. In the particular case of the US, interest rates can't really get much lower, and they have been low for years. Not many levers left to pull.
- natechols 6y agoI am (unusually!) an optimist here, based on current vaccine status: I think the second half of 2021 will be a period of exceptional economic growth. I don't know how anyone below the poverty line is supposed to wait that long to draw a paycheck again though.