Everyone on HN is smart, so let's dissect the statement. * First of all, a quadrillion is a h(u^15)ge number! So right off the top, the notion that Biden's ch

Everyone on HN is smart, so let's dissect the statement. * First of all, a quadrillion is a h(u^15)ge number! So right off the top, the notion that Biden's chances of winning these four states were that low, is w(a^15)y out of alignment with the roughly 50-50 split between Dems and Reps. Given no additional information, Biden's chances of winning four 50-50 states are 1 in 16, not 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000. * Second, this idea that Trump had a lead "earlier in the night" is meaningless, because the vote counting was not evenly distributed. Votes were group by county, by method of voting, etc. Each grouping has a bias. Some counties are heavily Rep or Dem. Mail-in ballots obviously favored Dems because Trump spent the last few months telling his followers not to use them. * Third, why is this "3am" cutoff meaningful? The legitimacy of the ballots does not depend on the order in which they were counted, so wallclock-time is irrelevant. Otherwise, if the ballots had been counted in reverse order I could sit here and claim that Trump cheated because Biden's lead shrank sharply after 3am.