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Completely anecdotal, but while I work in tech, most of my family remains working in trades. Back in March we (I help out where I can) were all in a panic becau

Completely anecdotal, but while I work in tech, most of my family remains working in trades. Back in March we (I help out where I can) were all in a panic because we assumed discretionary income spending would immediately dry up due to the incoming recession — they are very much working class people, and will be in deep trouble if work dries up. But the opposite has happened, apparently _a lot_ of people decided now is the time to remodel/improve their home, and the family business is booked _months_ in advance. Furthermore, customers also assume that business must be low, and are aghast when we tell them that "No, work cannot start next week, does late February work?". At the moment their biggest issue is finding enough skilled labor to meet demand, and excruciatingly slow permitting process. We're still extremely wary with how this economy is playing out, and continue to plan for the worst. I still worry for them a lot because, well Covid, but safety protocols and N95 masks were the norm before the virus took hold.

draw_down 6y ago
I think it’s best to think of the crisis as having a disruptive effect, not only a downward or depressive one. Some sectors have been completely gutted, live events for example. Others suffer from second order effects like dry cleaning. And as you point out, for others business is booming. The source of all of it is disruption and upheaval.
lhorie 6y ago
Yeah, I went to buy some materials from home depot for a patio project this past summer and discovered they were having trouble keeping up with bulk deliveries (e.g. crushed stone or bricks), because apparently everyone and their mothers had _also_ decided to do renovation or yard/patio work while stuck at home.
- bluedino 6y ago
  Lumber prices are nuts right now
alistairSH 6y ago
Anecdotally, I see the same. No relations in the home improvement business or anything related, but the number of small contractors moving through the neighborhood doing all sized job is insane. We're no different, my wife completely redecorated the main level of our home. It was all things we wanted to do but were putting off. I guess being home 24/7 pushed us to action to improve the space.
outworlder 6y ago
Just follow the HD and LOW tickers. They had an incredible volume ever since the pandemic started. Which makes sense. Many people still have their jobs and income. But now are spending more time than ever inside their own houses. Not traveling, and for the most part, not dining out or otherwise spending money elsewhere. So it makes sense that, if you are in the home remodeling business, you are seeing lots of activity. Also why USPS, UPS and Fedex are overloaded. And the reason PC parts are rarer than gold. TVs flew off the (virtual) shelves on Black Friday. And so on. The problem is: many people did lose their income. So on one hand you see an incredible influx of customers remodeling homes and spending money on superfluous things, on the other hand you see people becoming homeless, or relying on food banks for the first time in their lives. This is not like a recession. Some activities have essentially stopped, other are on overdrive. This will create an enormous imbalance, which could bring a recession (long predicted) even after COVID is done. Assuming we can get rid of it.
- jdhn 6y ago
  My prediction is that we're not going to see a recession after COVID is done. Interest rates are going to stay low/go even lower in order to goose the economy into "recovery". The activities that are in overdrive will slow down as money is pulled from them and redirected elsewhere.
  - outworlder 6y ago
    I hope you are right. But if I've learned anything this year is that the market (and worse yet, the stock market) tends to overcorrect. In the particular case of the US, interest rates can't really get much lower, and they have been low for years. Not many levers left to pull.
- natechols 6y ago
  I am (unusually!) an optimist here, based on current vaccine status: I think the second half of 2021 will be a period of exceptional economic growth. I don't know how anyone below the poverty line is supposed to wait that long to draw a paycheck again though.
vmception 6y ago
> and excruciatingly slow permitting process. I'm seeing a lot of municipal and state services and even private sector license-like approvals exacerbating the demand for people that are already approved. Yeah it is really hard to see what the market is really signaling, because the market can't correct itself with more entrants because pandemic restrictives absolutely have slowed down the gatekeepers. But yeah, after a certain while you can't put your life on hold. Look up the top killers in the 1600s, all sorts of phantom and misnamed ailments that could get you at any time! Note, this isn't a post about ignoring the pandemic, only that the idea of people being poor and twiddling thumbs in their homes until the bread line opens up again is just completely wrong.
dhruvkar 6y ago
I supply natural stone to customers in 10 states and am building a custom home for myself and family. The construction business is BOOMING at least in the Midwest. Lumber costs are sky high. Most other subs (plumbing, roofing, siding etc.) are booked beyond what they can handle. We had our best year at our business in it's 21 year existence.
- at-fates-hands 6y ago
  >> Lumber costs are sky high. Can confirm. Was going to do a little DIY job at home and went to go price out some wood and dry wall. Just about had a heart attack when I saw 2x4's were now $6 a pop!! I know this has been a double edge sword since demand is sky high but a lot of the supply side suppliers are relying on China and they've all but stopped shipping a LOT of stuff from a myriad of regions. So yeah, demand is high but I've also heard the supply side issues with China are compounding the issue. Are you seeing/having any issues on the supply side yet?
  - dhruvkar 6y ago
    We import mostly from Brazil and India so can't say much about China. Supply side issues are mostly logistical in nature: - low low low supply of containers - lower than normal vessels on the water - getting container bookings is 3-4-5 weeks out. - factory workers testing COVID positive = random shutdowns, therefore random delays
rayiner 6y ago
Covid has had some surprising results. I tried to book a horseback riding lesson for my daughter as an outdoor birthday activity, and they struggled to fit us in. It’s not like it was the only place with horses nearby—This is rural Maryland—there are probably a dozen farms with horses within a 15 minute drive. Horseback riding just became a super popular activity during the pandemic.
mdgrech23 6y ago
Frigging permits. What an absolute joke. Goto city hall, pay money, wait weeks for a response - all to do something that should take minutes. Why doesn't our government pay someone to create an app to expedite the process. Also stop doing it at the city level and handle it at the state level.
true_religion 6y ago
That’s nice but as someone on the opposite end, I have been able to book appointments for home remodels in the next week or same week consistently. Basically every project we put aside because it didn’t matter so long as we had an office to retreat to has been done and tradesmen in my area are consistently free. Most notably these are all high dollar jobs so it may be different on the low end.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

draw_down 6y ago

I think it’s best to think of the crisis as having a disruptive effect, not only a downward or depressive one. Some sectors have been completely gutted, live events for example. Others suffer from second order effects like dry cleaning. And as you point out, for others business is booming. The source of all of it is disruption and upheaval.

lhorie 6y ago

Yeah, I went to buy some materials from home depot for a patio project this past summer and discovered they were having trouble keeping up with bulk deliveries (e.g. crushed stone or bricks), because apparently everyone and their mothers had _also_ decided to do renovation or yard/patio work while stuck at home.

bluedino 6y ago
Lumber prices are nuts right now

alistairSH 6y ago

Anecdotally, I see the same. No relations in the home improvement business or anything related, but the number of small contractors moving through the neighborhood doing all sized job is insane. We're no different, my wife completely redecorated the main level of our home. It was all things we wanted to do but were putting off. I guess being home 24/7 pushed us to action to improve the space.

outworlder 6y ago

Just follow the HD and LOW tickers. They had an incredible volume ever since the pandemic started. Which makes sense. Many people still have their jobs and income. But now are spending more time than ever inside their own houses. Not traveling, and for the most part, not dining out or otherwise spending money elsewhere. So it makes sense that, if you are in the home remodeling business, you are seeing lots of activity. Also why USPS, UPS and Fedex are overloaded. And the reason PC parts are rarer than gold. TVs flew off the (virtual) shelves on Black Friday. And so on. The problem is: many people did lose their income. So on one hand you see an incredible influx of customers remodeling homes and spending money on superfluous things, on the other hand you see people becoming homeless, or relying on food banks for the first time in their lives. This is not like a recession. Some activities have essentially stopped, other are on overdrive. This will create an enormous imbalance, which could bring a recession (long predicted) even after COVID is done. Assuming we can get rid of it.

jdhn 6y ago
My prediction is that we're not going to see a recession after COVID is done. Interest rates are going to stay low/go even lower in order to goose the economy into "recovery". The activities that are in overdrive will slow down as money is pulled from them and redirected elsewhere.
- outworlder 6y ago
  I hope you are right. But if I've learned anything this year is that the market (and worse yet, the stock market) tends to overcorrect. In the particular case of the US, interest rates can't really get much lower, and they have been low for years. Not many levers left to pull.
natechols 6y ago
I am (unusually!) an optimist here, based on current vaccine status: I think the second half of 2021 will be a period of exceptional economic growth. I don't know how anyone below the poverty line is supposed to wait that long to draw a paycheck again though.

vmception 6y ago

> and excruciatingly slow permitting process. I'm seeing a lot of municipal and state services and even private sector license-like approvals exacerbating the demand for people that are already approved. Yeah it is really hard to see what the market is really signaling, because the market can't correct itself with more entrants because pandemic restrictives absolutely have slowed down the gatekeepers. But yeah, after a certain while you can't put your life on hold. Look up the top killers in the 1600s, all sorts of phantom and misnamed ailments that could get you at any time! Note, this isn't a post about ignoring the pandemic, only that the idea of people being poor and twiddling thumbs in their homes until the bread line opens up again is just completely wrong.

dhruvkar 6y ago

I supply natural stone to customers in 10 states and am building a custom home for myself and family. The construction business is BOOMING at least in the Midwest. Lumber costs are sky high. Most other subs (plumbing, roofing, siding etc.) are booked beyond what they can handle. We had our best year at our business in it's 21 year existence.

at-fates-hands 6y ago
>> Lumber costs are sky high. Can confirm. Was going to do a little DIY job at home and went to go price out some wood and dry wall. Just about had a heart attack when I saw 2x4's were now $6 a pop!! I know this has been a double edge sword since demand is sky high but a lot of the supply side suppliers are relying on China and they've all but stopped shipping a LOT of stuff from a myriad of regions. So yeah, demand is high but I've also heard the supply side issues with China are compounding the issue. Are you seeing/having any issues on the supply side yet?
- dhruvkar 6y ago
  We import mostly from Brazil and India so can't say much about China. Supply side issues are mostly logistical in nature: - low low low supply of containers - lower than normal vessels on the water - getting container bookings is 3-4-5 weeks out. - factory workers testing COVID positive = random shutdowns, therefore random delays

rayiner 6y ago

Covid has had some surprising results. I tried to book a horseback riding lesson for my daughter as an outdoor birthday activity, and they struggled to fit us in. It’s not like it was the only place with horses nearby—This is rural Maryland—there are probably a dozen farms with horses within a 15 minute drive. Horseback riding just became a super popular activity during the pandemic.

mdgrech23 6y ago

Frigging permits. What an absolute joke. Goto city hall, pay money, wait weeks for a response - all to do something that should take minutes. Why doesn't our government pay someone to create an app to expedite the process. Also stop doing it at the city level and handle it at the state level.

true_religion 6y ago

That’s nice but as someone on the opposite end, I have been able to book appointments for home remodels in the next week or same week consistently. Basically every project we put aside because it didn’t matter so long as we had an office to retreat to has been done and tradesmen in my area are consistently free. Most notably these are all high dollar jobs so it may be different on the low end.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]