A year ago you could get the full $250 back (barring some issues like weather, or shipping during the holiday blackout period from Cyber Monday to Christmas).

A year ago you could get the full $250 back (barring some issues like weather, or shipping during the holiday blackout period from Cyber Monday to Christmas). Right now the estimates they give you have always been tied to the guarantee. I'm not sure if they'll ever start showing guarantees based on actual delivery; one thing is the carriers tend to operate in lockstep. There are a handful of companies in our space that are trying to provide additional insight, but as alluded to, they have more data points than any of us do.