15 ms·

Can you give more examples of what you have seen from the inside that is not being reported by TV news? (I agree with you on the crazy PE ratios and FED manipu

by da02 6y ago

Can you give more examples of what you have seen from the inside that is not being reported by TV news? (I agree with you on the crazy PE ratios and FED manipulations. Something is going to happen to bring things back to reality.)

jameslk 6y ago
I work with medium-size Shopify brands to assist on the development-side of things. When the pandemic started, a lot of ecommerce brands were clamping down on budgets. Shortly after the CARES act was passed, suddenly revenue for a lot of my clients started to skyrocket, especially those in the food industry (some were making what they made over the course of a year in a few months) but soon also to discretionary industries like apparel and beauty. Ever since, I've been seeing large-scale projects to agencies we work with being pushed through without hesitation and of course business has been growing at a much higher clip for my own company versus prior to CARES. I'm grateful for it, but at the same time I know this is at the expense of many small companies in the restaurant and travel space, and all the labor they employ too, so that's pretty depressing. And I don't think it's sustainable so I expect my own luck to turn around eventually. I don't think things will change much in the next 6 months though with another potential stimulus check on the horizon and at least until some of the state-level measures to reduce the spread of COVID are reversed (possibly with vaccines widely available?)
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  Why do you think people won't continue their shopping habits online? Hasn't e-commerce grown over the past decade? Coronavirus may have sped up the growth.
  - jameslk 6y ago
    Usually Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) or in-season traffic is when I see the most traffic for my clients. The new normal is BFCM traffic as a baseline, with the highest traffic 2-3x that. They've done nothing more than they've done in past years to earn that traffic. This isn't the usual growth of ecommerce, especially when its across an entire industry and very sudden. I do think the pandemic has set a new normal for ecommerce, but I very much doubt it will be at the levels we see today.
    - hermanradtke 6y ago
      I also work in the e-commerce industry, specifically fashion. There are winners (home, lounge wear) and losers (dresses). I do not see this as a bubble. Will buying habits correct post-COVID? Sure, but factors have already been clamping down. If anything, you may see a boost in e-commerce in certain sectors.
    - ketamine__ 6y ago
      It's hard for me to believe that customers can't wait to shop for products at Walmart again. Prices are cheaper but the experience is horrible.
      - bobthepanda 6y ago
        It depends wildly on what the category of item is. Clothes are probably going to a big return to store once things reopen, since fits can be all over the place between or even within stores. (Yes, online experiences offer relatively hassle free returns, but I still consider waiting for a few days only to get something with poor fit or cheap and then waiting for it to be received at returns more painful than just trying on clothes in person.)
      - 01100011 6y ago
        I hate people and crowds, but I enjoy a trip to Target/Walmart/Costco when they're not busy. Hell, I even like going to the mall every so often. It's nice to just go and see things in person, especially combining it with a nice beverage/snack/meal. I am a dedicated Amazon shopper, but I don't see myself giving up on retail anytime soon. As fast as Amazon is, it is not instant, and that gratification is important to many folks. I think HN commenters aren't your typical shopper, so I'd be wary of believing the echo chamber. I bet the average HN commenter also doesn't fall for "luxury" brands or the related "mating displays" which seem to be so important to many people. But there are a lot of people who do like those things. They like to dress up and show off among other members of their species. Retail may shrink, but it isn't going away unless human psychology suddenly undergoes a fundamental change.
        6y ago
01100011 6y ago
While I agree that we need to 'return to reality'(as much as the market is ever tied to reality...), the "something" that is going to happen could just be inflation, and suddenly those asset valuations might not seem so crazy. What I do not know, however, is if you should expect better than average growth during/after an inflationary period, or if it will drag down growth and reduce market performance in 'real dollars'.

by da02 6y ago

jameslk 6y ago

I work with medium-size Shopify brands to assist on the development-side of things. When the pandemic started, a lot of ecommerce brands were clamping down on budgets. Shortly after the CARES act was passed, suddenly revenue for a lot of my clients started to skyrocket, especially those in the food industry (some were making what they made over the course of a year in a few months) but soon also to discretionary industries like apparel and beauty. Ever since, I've been seeing large-scale projects to agencies we work with being pushed through without hesitation and of course business has been growing at a much higher clip for my own company versus prior to CARES. I'm grateful for it, but at the same time I know this is at the expense of many small companies in the restaurant and travel space, and all the labor they employ too, so that's pretty depressing. And I don't think it's sustainable so I expect my own luck to turn around eventually. I don't think things will change much in the next 6 months though with another potential stimulus check on the horizon and at least until some of the state-level measures to reduce the spread of COVID are reversed (possibly with vaccines widely available?)

ketamine__ 6y ago
Why do you think people won't continue their shopping habits online? Hasn't e-commerce grown over the past decade? Coronavirus may have sped up the growth.
- jameslk 6y ago
  Usually Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) or in-season traffic is when I see the most traffic for my clients. The new normal is BFCM traffic as a baseline, with the highest traffic 2-3x that. They've done nothing more than they've done in past years to earn that traffic. This isn't the usual growth of ecommerce, especially when its across an entire industry and very sudden. I do think the pandemic has set a new normal for ecommerce, but I very much doubt it will be at the levels we see today.
  - hermanradtke 6y ago
    I also work in the e-commerce industry, specifically fashion. There are winners (home, lounge wear) and losers (dresses). I do not see this as a bubble. Will buying habits correct post-COVID? Sure, but factors have already been clamping down. If anything, you may see a boost in e-commerce in certain sectors.
  - ketamine__ 6y ago
    It's hard for me to believe that customers can't wait to shop for products at Walmart again. Prices are cheaper but the experience is horrible.
    - bobthepanda 6y ago
      It depends wildly on what the category of item is. Clothes are probably going to a big return to store once things reopen, since fits can be all over the place between or even within stores. (Yes, online experiences offer relatively hassle free returns, but I still consider waiting for a few days only to get something with poor fit or cheap and then waiting for it to be received at returns more painful than just trying on clothes in person.)
    - 01100011 6y ago
      I hate people and crowds, but I enjoy a trip to Target/Walmart/Costco when they're not busy. Hell, I even like going to the mall every so often. It's nice to just go and see things in person, especially combining it with a nice beverage/snack/meal. I am a dedicated Amazon shopper, but I don't see myself giving up on retail anytime soon. As fast as Amazon is, it is not instant, and that gratification is important to many folks. I think HN commenters aren't your typical shopper, so I'd be wary of believing the echo chamber. I bet the average HN commenter also doesn't fall for "luxury" brands or the related "mating displays" which seem to be so important to many people. But there are a lot of people who do like those things. They like to dress up and show off among other members of their species. Retail may shrink, but it isn't going away unless human psychology suddenly undergoes a fundamental change.
      - 6y ago

01100011 6y ago

While I agree that we need to 'return to reality'(as much as the market is ever tied to reality...), the "something" that is going to happen could just be inflation, and suddenly those asset valuations might not seem so crazy. What I do not know, however, is if you should expect better than average growth during/after an inflationary period, or if it will drag down growth and reduce market performance in 'real dollars'.