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The more likely scenario is that the next decades gains are just going to be priced in. Speculators think that Tesla will be a 1T company (in 2020 dollars) by t

The more likely scenario is that the next decades gains are just going to be priced in. Speculators think that Tesla will be a 1T company (in 2020 dollars) by the end of the 2020s, and I don't disagree, but a lot has to go right for that to be true. That means if it hits 1T within the next year, I suspect they'll have a decade of stagnation like the tech companies did after the dotcom bubble. But also, the fact that I have to stress that the valuation is in 2020 dollars should tell us all we need to know about this current market and the valuations we're seeing. Flood the markets with dollars, and you'll have outlandish valuations.

grey-area 6y ago
Yes markets tend to underprice and then overprice, then maybe drift down to a sensible valuation over time as companies grow. So perhaps we'll just see some stagnation in the stock price but there's no sign of it yet. This does feel like a speculative bubble and we've reached the FOMO stage where people think things are overvalued but invest anyway, because everyone else is. 25% of the S&P is in the largest 5 companies (all tech), market cap to GDP is at an all time high of 183.7% for the US. US assets in particular seems overvalued to me at present and heavily distorted by the massive QE programs that have been running since 2008 and gone into overdrive this year.