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with this valuation, I would instead sell half of company and acquire GM and Ford for that money, then it would definitely be 600B company, as a bonus I might a

with this valuation, I would instead sell half of company and acquire GM and Ford for that money, then it would definitely be 600B company, as a bonus I might as well add some smaller companies just in case like Hyliion UPD: will acquire Boeing as well

DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
> acquire GM and Ford Why take on all the baggage?
- tuyguntn 6y ago
  because they really produce lots of cars every year, they do have facilities to produce as many cars as you want and their respective revenues are 130B and 150B, +Boeing 75B.
  - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
    Producing ICE cars isn't the same as making EVs. A good example of this is Tesla's Fremont factory (which used to be a GM/Toyota facility) and their Shanghai Gigafactory. The layout of the Fremont one contributed to significant inefficiencies in manufacturing compared to GF3 which was built from scratch for EVs. Buying Ford and GM would also mean taking on the baggage of hundreds of billions in debt, pension obligations, employees with minimal experience in building batteries/drivetrains/EVs, a dealership network that doesn't want to sell EVs and the old guard that has no desire to innovate. Tesla uses manufacturing methods no other OEM does (e.g. Giga-press casting machine for Model Y/3 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Press https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Press). The facilities they are currently building are massive compared to Ford/GM's factories. They vertically integrate, soon going all the way down to cell manufacturing/lithium mining. Buying an incumbent OEM would end up a burden.
    - tuyguntn 6y ago
      EVs are not something only some companies or people can do, they can be replicated by any car company at this moment, look EU companies, Renault and Volkswagen are already in top by selling electric cars across Europe. Also GM is working on EVs, their Electric Hummer maybe released soon as well
      - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
        soon™ They have been saying that for years now. The electric Hummer will have its niche buyers. But in terms of specs, it is very lacking compared to Tesla's offerings. Tesla has figured out how to manufacture EVs at scale with a ~20%+ gross margin. This will only go up as their numbers go up and they start producing their own 4680 cells. No other auto-maker has even tried to come up with their own cell chemistry. They still rely on suppliers like LG-Chem. Most automakers make single digit margins on ICE cars and lose money on EVs. At this point, OEMs like GM and Ford are too far behind IMO. VW is probably the closest to Tesla right now. Their CEO recently said they are probably years behind. https://www.teslarati.com/volkswagen-tesla-10-year-headstart/ https://www.teslarati.com/volkswagen-tesla-10-year-headstart... https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-has-a-giant-fan-germanys-vw-51595601718 https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-has-a-giant-fan-germa... https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/tesla-teardown-6-years-lead-over-toyota-vw/ https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/tesla-teardown-6-years-lead-o... https://insideevs.com/news/454957/volkswagen-group-ceo-tesla-future-race-advantages/ https://insideevs.com/news/454957/volkswagen-group-ceo-tesla... https://electrek.co/2020/03/02/vw-chief-adjusts-goal-from-overtaking-tesla-to-keep-as-close-as-possible/ https://electrek.co/2020/03/02/vw-chief-adjusts-goal-from-ov...
        bildung 6y ago
        No, right now. Tesla isn't even in the top 5 of EV cars sold in Germany anymore. Edit: Renault already reported gross margin profitability of its EV models in 2017: https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/renault-macht-rekordgewinn-carlos-ghosn-in-der-form-seines-lebens/19376200.html https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/renault-m... (German source)
        6y ago
    - tuyguntn 6y ago
      only advantage of Tesla at this moment, I think their Level 2 driver assistance.
      - mohaine 6y ago
        Of course they have no advantage in batteries, controllers, brand recognition, or efficiency, this is why their stock is only so so.
      - speedgoose 6y ago
        Disagree, it's crap with all the phantom breaking. I rather drive a car equipped with Mobileye. I think Tesla are good cars and the model 3 has a good value in its price range and provides the best package overall. The network is also a big advantage in some countries.
        intotheabyss 6y ago
        Why not support the android of driving assist, openpilot. It's nearly as good as Tesla's software, and it has a driver facing camera for behavior monitoring, which for whatever reason Tesla doesn't have.
    - hef19898 6y ago
      There is a reason why Toyota closed the Fremont plant in the first place.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
bryanlarsen 6y ago
Musk has stated that he will entertain offers to merge, but won't be doing any hostile takeovers. https://electrek.co/2020/12/01/elon-musk-tesla-tsla-merging-with-other-automakers-after-valuation-surge/ https://electrek.co/2020/12/01/elon-musk-tesla-tsla-merging-... I seriously doubt that he would be interested in taking on GM's or Ford's hundreds of billions in debt, though.
- SilasX 6y ago
  Wow, really? Wouldn't a merger dilute his ability to control the company and make ambitious bets? I can't image Musk going for something that lets his BoD fill with old-school auto industry types. Or does "merger" include "buyouts"?
  - bryanlarsen 6y ago
    A merger of a $600B company with a $60B company should have minimal impact on board seats. But it's hard to tell how serious he is. All he's really said is that he'll read any offers that come in. I doubt he'll do much more than read them, but who knows? One thing Musk does not lack is hubris, so I'm sure he thinks he has the ability to absorb and turn around a legacy automaker.
    - elindbe2 6y ago
      But why turn around a legacy automaker, even if he thinks he could? It would have to fit into his greater strategy, e.g. providing branding for his EVs or providing auto workers that would otherwise be hard to find, etc. I took this as just an offhand comment saying "we might be willing to do this if they can convince us it will benefit Tesla" not a statement on how likely it is to happen.
      - bumby 6y ago
        The benefit would be the manufacturing expertise they would gain. I believe he’s on the record saying mass production is a much harder problem than the type of technical challenges with building rockets.
mbesto 6y ago
> I would instead sell half of company and acquire GM and Ford for that money Anti-trust?

DarmokJalad1701 6y ago

> acquire GM and Ford Why take on all the baggage?

tuyguntn 6y ago
because they really produce lots of cars every year, they do have facilities to produce as many cars as you want and their respective revenues are 130B and 150B, +Boeing 75B.
- DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
  Producing ICE cars isn't the same as making EVs. A good example of this is Tesla's Fremont factory (which used to be a GM/Toyota facility) and their Shanghai Gigafactory. The layout of the Fremont one contributed to significant inefficiencies in manufacturing compared to GF3 which was built from scratch for EVs. Buying Ford and GM would also mean taking on the baggage of hundreds of billions in debt, pension obligations, employees with minimal experience in building batteries/drivetrains/EVs, a dealership network that doesn't want to sell EVs and the old guard that has no desire to innovate. Tesla uses manufacturing methods no other OEM does (e.g. Giga-press casting machine for Model Y/3 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Press https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Press). The facilities they are currently building are massive compared to Ford/GM's factories. They vertically integrate, soon going all the way down to cell manufacturing/lithium mining. Buying an incumbent OEM would end up a burden.
  - tuyguntn 6y ago
    EVs are not something only some companies or people can do, they can be replicated by any car company at this moment, look EU companies, Renault and Volkswagen are already in top by selling electric cars across Europe. Also GM is working on EVs, their Electric Hummer maybe released soon as well
    - DarmokJalad1701 6y ago
      soon™ They have been saying that for years now. The electric Hummer will have its niche buyers. But in terms of specs, it is very lacking compared to Tesla's offerings. Tesla has figured out how to manufacture EVs at scale with a ~20%+ gross margin. This will only go up as their numbers go up and they start producing their own 4680 cells. No other auto-maker has even tried to come up with their own cell chemistry. They still rely on suppliers like LG-Chem. Most automakers make single digit margins on ICE cars and lose money on EVs. At this point, OEMs like GM and Ford are too far behind IMO. VW is probably the closest to Tesla right now. Their CEO recently said they are probably years behind. https://www.teslarati.com/volkswagen-tesla-10-year-headstart/ https://www.teslarati.com/volkswagen-tesla-10-year-headstart... https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-has-a-giant-fan-germanys-vw-51595601718 https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-has-a-giant-fan-germa... https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/tesla-teardown-6-years-lead-over-toyota-vw/ https://electrek.co/2020/02/17/tesla-teardown-6-years-lead-o... https://insideevs.com/news/454957/volkswagen-group-ceo-tesla-future-race-advantages/ https://insideevs.com/news/454957/volkswagen-group-ceo-tesla... https://electrek.co/2020/03/02/vw-chief-adjusts-goal-from-overtaking-tesla-to-keep-as-close-as-possible/ https://electrek.co/2020/03/02/vw-chief-adjusts-goal-from-ov...
      - bildung 6y ago
        No, right now. Tesla isn't even in the top 5 of EV cars sold in Germany anymore. Edit: Renault already reported gross margin profitability of its EV models in 2017: https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/renault-macht-rekordgewinn-carlos-ghosn-in-der-form-seines-lebens/19376200.html https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/renault-m... (German source)
        6y ago
  - tuyguntn 6y ago
    only advantage of Tesla at this moment, I think their Level 2 driver assistance.
    - mohaine 6y ago
      Of course they have no advantage in batteries, controllers, brand recognition, or efficiency, this is why their stock is only so so.
    - speedgoose 6y ago
      Disagree, it's crap with all the phantom breaking. I rather drive a car equipped with Mobileye. I think Tesla are good cars and the model 3 has a good value in its price range and provides the best package overall. The network is also a big advantage in some countries.
      - intotheabyss 6y ago
        Why not support the android of driving assist, openpilot. It's nearly as good as Tesla's software, and it has a driver facing camera for behavior monitoring, which for whatever reason Tesla doesn't have.
  - hef19898 6y ago
    There is a reason why Toyota closed the Fremont plant in the first place.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

bryanlarsen 6y ago

Musk has stated that he will entertain offers to merge, but won't be doing any hostile takeovers. https://electrek.co/2020/12/01/elon-musk-tesla-tsla-merging-with-other-automakers-after-valuation-surge/ https://electrek.co/2020/12/01/elon-musk-tesla-tsla-merging-... I seriously doubt that he would be interested in taking on GM's or Ford's hundreds of billions in debt, though.

SilasX 6y ago
Wow, really? Wouldn't a merger dilute his ability to control the company and make ambitious bets? I can't image Musk going for something that lets his BoD fill with old-school auto industry types. Or does "merger" include "buyouts"?
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  A merger of a $600B company with a $60B company should have minimal impact on board seats. But it's hard to tell how serious he is. All he's really said is that he'll read any offers that come in. I doubt he'll do much more than read them, but who knows? One thing Musk does not lack is hubris, so I'm sure he thinks he has the ability to absorb and turn around a legacy automaker.
  - elindbe2 6y ago
    But why turn around a legacy automaker, even if he thinks he could? It would have to fit into his greater strategy, e.g. providing branding for his EVs or providing auto workers that would otherwise be hard to find, etc. I took this as just an offhand comment saying "we might be willing to do this if they can convince us it will benefit Tesla" not a statement on how likely it is to happen.
    - bumby 6y ago
      The benefit would be the manufacturing expertise they would gain. I believe he’s on the record saying mass production is a much harder problem than the type of technical challenges with building rockets.

mbesto 6y ago

> I would instead sell half of company and acquire GM and Ford for that money Anti-trust?