6 ms·

Presumably they pre-sold based on estimates of their production. I would not be very surprised if it turns out they can make 10% more than they committed, and a

by iguy 6y ago

Presumably they pre-sold based on estimates of their production. I would not be very surprised if it turns out they can make 10% more than they committed, and auction this off. And would expect hospitals treating Saudi princelings & the like to win such an auction. But does anyone actually know what these pre-sale contracts look like? They must have some wiggle room in case production doesn't go as well as planned... are there just penalties for late delivery to specific customers, or explicitly tied to total production, or did they literally sell places in the queue, or what?

makomk 6y ago
Last I'd heard, they overestimated how much they could produce and presold more than they could actually deliver at least at first.
bluGill 6y ago
Companies that have a vaccine are aware of image. They know that the world is watching, and this is a big marketing opportunity. They will make a profit, but long term goodwill is more valuable than any profit they could make selling to billionaires, so I doubt anything will go to auction. The hospitals treating Saudi princes are real hospitals. So they can win auctions if it comes down to that, because they are invited to them while the rest of the black market isn't. I don't think real vaccines will come to auction though. There is one thing left: vaccines that have approval issues. Any vaccine that is somewhat effective by not enough (The Oxford vaccine at 65% efficiency is questionable). The Russian vaccine. Any of many that haven't started phase 3 trails yet. Any vaccine that has safety issues. All are candidates for someone to "leak" to the underground. You will have to consider the risks, but it might be worth it to get it now and then in a year when the better vaccines come to you get that too.
- iguy 6y ago
  Yes, an actual open auction would be astonishingly bad PR! But quietly, on the side? Maybe I'm a cynic but I struggle to believe the billionaires won't find a way. If not from the main production... they had 43538 phase III participants, there must be leftovers, which won't appear in the books as real production... maybe you can route those to important donors of your philanthropic arm, or something? Run some "further trials" in a variety of small clinics, including those catering to visiting Saudis? Plus actual black market stuff of course, I wonder if any of their refrigerated shipping boxes have gone missing? And, as you say, things like the Russian vaccine are probably already available at a price.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    The risk of being caught trying to pull that off as a company are too big. Though there might be some individual who does something against company policy, but it is hard to keep such things secret if they involve more than a couple people.

by iguy 6y ago

makomk 6y ago

Last I'd heard, they overestimated how much they could produce and presold more than they could actually deliver at least at first.

bluGill 6y ago

Companies that have a vaccine are aware of image. They know that the world is watching, and this is a big marketing opportunity. They will make a profit, but long term goodwill is more valuable than any profit they could make selling to billionaires, so I doubt anything will go to auction. The hospitals treating Saudi princes are real hospitals. So they can win auctions if it comes down to that, because they are invited to them while the rest of the black market isn't. I don't think real vaccines will come to auction though. There is one thing left: vaccines that have approval issues. Any vaccine that is somewhat effective by not enough (The Oxford vaccine at 65% efficiency is questionable). The Russian vaccine. Any of many that haven't started phase 3 trails yet. Any vaccine that has safety issues. All are candidates for someone to "leak" to the underground. You will have to consider the risks, but it might be worth it to get it now and then in a year when the better vaccines come to you get that too.

iguy 6y ago
Yes, an actual open auction would be astonishingly bad PR! But quietly, on the side? Maybe I'm a cynic but I struggle to believe the billionaires won't find a way. If not from the main production... they had 43538 phase III participants, there must be leftovers, which won't appear in the books as real production... maybe you can route those to important donors of your philanthropic arm, or something? Run some "further trials" in a variety of small clinics, including those catering to visiting Saudis? Plus actual black market stuff of course, I wonder if any of their refrigerated shipping boxes have gone missing? And, as you say, things like the Russian vaccine are probably already available at a price.
- bluGill 6y ago
  The risk of being caught trying to pull that off as a company are too big. Though there might be some individual who does something against company policy, but it is hard to keep such things secret if they involve more than a couple people.