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Man, people have been citing "basic economics" at musk for over a decade. You can't break into the US automotive industry with an independent startup, you can't
by betwixthewires 6y ago
Man, people have been citing "basic economics" at musk for over a decade. You can't break into the US automotive industry with an independent startup, you can't cut launch costs by an order of magnitude, there's no market for a global constellation of LEO networking satellites, you can't double the number of sattelites in orbit in 5 years, the list goes on.
I don't bet against Elon Musk anymore.
If you've ever paid more for quicker shipping, there's a market for this.
- lukeify 6y agoTo be fair, SpaceX hasn't cut costs by an order of magnitude. They've made things significantly cheaper, but the list price for a barebones Falcon 9 is about $50-60m, while an Atlas V is around $100-120m.
- ericd 6y agoWell, they’re targeting launching much more mass than F9 for a much lower cost with Starship (<$10M). So not done yet, but it seems like they have a good shot at it. And if they pull off orbital refueling, then they can take those huge amounts of mass to geo and beyond.
- lukeify 6y agoCorrect, but that's a forward-looking statement. The comment I was replying to was written in the past-tense.
- betwixthewires 6y agoYeah, you're right, I put some "haven't quite happened yet" stuff in there, but the point I was making was that there was a time when discounting the man was the rational thing to do, at this point I think he's proven his ability to do what he says he's going to do, and the ones I stretched a little are well on their way to happening.