Depends what you're judging. It's true you can't judge returns till much later, because those usually depend on a single outlier, and whether they turn down th

Depends what you're judging. It's true you can't judge returns till much later, because those usually depend on a single outlier, and whether they turn down the $50m offer. The sort of test I'm talking about is a preliminary one: how promising the companies look on Demo Day. Investors who've been to a lot of past Demo Days (and there have now been 12) have a pretty good sense of what percentage of the companies they want to talk to further.