My intuition is that Waymo and Tesla dominate in the amount of data available to them. Waymo seems to be closest to a robust 3D lidar based solution, but Tesla

My intuition is that Waymo and Tesla dominate in the amount of data available to them. Waymo seems to be closest to a robust 3D lidar based solution, but Tesla maybe be closest to 'a' solution, but the community is split on whether their 2D approach will work. Then there seem to be a laundry list of companies that entered the market late, and are propped up panicking car companies which aren't sure which one of these companies is the real thing. So, they hedge their bets by taking a piece of all of them. The solution will come out of 1 of the following: 1. A slow race to making a more and more robust vision system that is eventually good enough to get through regulation. In this case, the earliest to start and one with the most data will win. So, either Waymo or Tesla. By the time others get there, they will have captured the market and made billions. 2. Some smaller company has an 'a-ha' moment. Waiting for an a-ha moment doesn't sound like the most prudent investment decision, but the one that finds it will become a billionaire overnight. This change is so important (like Mapreduce) that it will quickly be reverse engineered and one of Google/Uber/etc. will release a self driving hardware kit + api or come pre-installed in cars like android auto. The solution transforms the vision field with a reach far beyond just cars.