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what happens to Uber now when Waymo releases self-driving taxi? Will they lose all competitive advantage?

admax88q 6y ago
Assuming that ever happens, they will likely just license it from Waymo. I don't think Waymo intends to run a full stack taxi service, easier to just sell the self driving tech itself and let other's doing the work on real world applications. Uber's competitive advantage now is their mindshare, app experience, and subsidized pricing. With or without self driving doesn't really change that.
- oivey 6y ago
  Maybe. The amount of work to make a taxi service is much, much smaller than that to make a self driving car. I could see Waymo entering lots of industries like that to capture easy profits.
  - chairmanwow1 6y ago
    Technical work is relatively easy to copy. But what Uber has and what the market reliably undervalues is how expensive it is to acquire customers. Furthermore they have an actually competent customer support team to deal with problems encountered while providing the service.
    - tuyguntn 6y ago
      if you really have self-driving taxi and it is cheap, I don't think it is difficult to acquire customers, since customers are not loyal to taxi brands, they are loyal to price
      - chairmanwow1 6y ago
        It’s quite a delicate balance between supply (cars) and demand (riders). If you have too much supply, you aren’t making money because you have to subsidize all the cars without riders in them. If you have too much demand and not enough supply, then wait times shoot up, and people return to your competitors. Plus demand is non-uniformly distributed across time. If you have enough cars to handle peak demand, then they’ll be sitting idle the remainder of the day/week. Most people think that trains are busy, because most people ride trains in high-demand times of year. If the same is true of a TNC, then it’s much better to list your cars with a bigger network and let them keep your cars busy more than you can. It’s much more expensive to properly balance the marketplace than you think.
  - admax88q 6y ago
    I dunno, the profits are easier and risks lower to just license the tech. Sticking to your core copmentency so to speak.
    - bagacrap 6y ago
      when has Google been known to do that?
      - admax88q 6y ago
        lol fair point.
- acdha 6y ago
  > Uber's competitive advantage now is their mindshare, app experience, and subsidized pricing. With or without self driving doesn't really change that. I think the last one is their big problem: Uber has their current market-position by selling below cost, and they've locked in a lot of things like compensation at the assumption they were profitable to a much more fanciful degree. Once the VC money runs out, they're going to need to raise prices and it's a lot easier for anyone else to compete with them since they're all renting the same Waymo cars and all of the drivers are running multiple apps anyway. Uber has some economy of scale benefits but they also have a reputation for mistreating drivers and a lot of expensive real-estate and staff which local competitors don't have.
dboreham 6y ago
They won't. Unless that is "self-driving taxi" becomes redefined to mean "on roads with no human drivers and no pedestrians".
- badestrand 6y ago
  Check out this video, it works really well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBJ0GvsQeak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBJ0GvsQeak ("Riding in a Self Driving Car - With Nobody Up Front")
  - mlboss 6y ago
    No pedestrians, no roadside construction, no bikes. I would like to see a self driving video in major city during rush hour.
    - crazysim 6y ago
      The channel has many videos with pedestrians such as in front of a Costco or busy stores, Waymos encountering weird construction setups sometimes leaving no full lanes available, and might have encountered bikes. Also, there are some during busy times instead of sleepy suburbs though admittedly not New York-levels of crazy.

Assuming that ever happens, they will likely just license it from Waymo. I don't think Waymo intends to run a full stack taxi service, easier to just sell the self driving tech itself and let other's doing the work on real world applications. Uber's competitive advantage now is their mindshare, app experience, and subsidized pricing. With or without self driving doesn't really change that.

oivey 6y ago
Maybe. The amount of work to make a taxi service is much, much smaller than that to make a self driving car. I could see Waymo entering lots of industries like that to capture easy profits.
- chairmanwow1 6y ago
  Technical work is relatively easy to copy. But what Uber has and what the market reliably undervalues is how expensive it is to acquire customers. Furthermore they have an actually competent customer support team to deal with problems encountered while providing the service.
  - tuyguntn 6y ago
    if you really have self-driving taxi and it is cheap, I don't think it is difficult to acquire customers, since customers are not loyal to taxi brands, they are loyal to price
    - chairmanwow1 6y ago
      It’s quite a delicate balance between supply (cars) and demand (riders). If you have too much supply, you aren’t making money because you have to subsidize all the cars without riders in them. If you have too much demand and not enough supply, then wait times shoot up, and people return to your competitors. Plus demand is non-uniformly distributed across time. If you have enough cars to handle peak demand, then they’ll be sitting idle the remainder of the day/week. Most people think that trains are busy, because most people ride trains in high-demand times of year. If the same is true of a TNC, then it’s much better to list your cars with a bigger network and let them keep your cars busy more than you can. It’s much more expensive to properly balance the marketplace than you think.
- admax88q 6y ago
  I dunno, the profits are easier and risks lower to just license the tech. Sticking to your core copmentency so to speak.
  - bagacrap 6y ago
    when has Google been known to do that?
    - admax88q 6y ago
      lol fair point.
acdha 6y ago
> Uber's competitive advantage now is their mindshare, app experience, and subsidized pricing. With or without self driving doesn't really change that. I think the last one is their big problem: Uber has their current market-position by selling below cost, and they've locked in a lot of things like compensation at the assumption they were profitable to a much more fanciful degree. Once the VC money runs out, they're going to need to raise prices and it's a lot easier for anyone else to compete with them since they're all renting the same Waymo cars and all of the drivers are running multiple apps anyway. Uber has some economy of scale benefits but they also have a reputation for mistreating drivers and a lot of expensive real-estate and staff which local competitors don't have.

dboreham 6y ago

They won't. Unless that is "self-driving taxi" becomes redefined to mean "on roads with no human drivers and no pedestrians".

badestrand 6y ago
Check out this video, it works really well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBJ0GvsQeak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBJ0GvsQeak ("Riding in a Self Driving Car - With Nobody Up Front")
- mlboss 6y ago
  No pedestrians, no roadside construction, no bikes. I would like to see a self driving video in major city during rush hour.
  - crazysim 6y ago
    The channel has many videos with pedestrians such as in front of a Costco or busy stores, Waymos encountering weird construction setups sometimes leaving no full lanes available, and might have encountered bikes. Also, there are some during busy times instead of sleepy suburbs though admittedly not New York-levels of crazy.