I don't think the logic holds up here. It is conceivable that SpaceX could have entered into the market to disrupt the relatively lo-tech GEO options without FC

I don't think the logic holds up here. It is conceivable that SpaceX could have entered into the market to disrupt the relatively lo-tech GEO options without FCC subsidy options (I think you agree here). Hughes (a GEO provider) themselves received a subsidy despite their being well established in North America. To ask that about SpaceX is to ask the same question about Hughes. In the age of COVID-19, any investment in ISP infrastructure is beneficial.