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The offical numbers say that German's hoslitals are not running at their limits. In average roughly 20% of intensive care beds are not occupied. https://www.in

by jansan 6y ago

The offical numbers say that German's hoslitals are not running at their limits. In average roughly 20% of intensive care beds are not occupied. https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/kartenansichten https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/kartenansich...

adrianN 6y ago
The regional differences are pretty high, and beds are in many cases not the limiting factor. It's ICU nurses. If you can read German here is a source for Berlin: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/zu-viele-corona-patienten-auf-vivantes-stationen-berliner-grosskrankenhaus-vor-aufnahmestopp/26668216.html https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/zu-viele-corona-patienten... TLDR is only 85% of the beds are full, but there aren't enough nurses, so the emergency room will be closed. Several other hospitals in Berlin already stopped admitting new ICU patients.
- jansan 6y ago
  Yes, I read German. But this is not a singular event that has never happened before. Here is a report from 2017 that sounds familiar: https://www.welt.de/regionales/bayern/article161869919/Kliniken-schliessen-wegen-Ueberlastung-ihre-Notaufnahmen.html https://www.welt.de/regionales/bayern/article161869919/Klini...
  - adrianN 6y ago
    Yes of course, there are other occasions where this happens, but I consider in very good evidence against the claim that there is no exceptional ICU load right now.
    - jansan 6y ago
      Yes, situation is bad, but we will make it. Prof. Kluge does not sound too pessimistic. If you have time, take a look at his report about the flu season 2017/18. Pretty grim stuff, more than 40% of intensive care patients died. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333785335_Management_der_saisonalen_Influenza_20172018_Erfahrungen_an_einem_deutschen_Universitatsklinikum_-_Management_of_seasonal_influenza_in_20172018_at_a_German_tertiary-care_hospital https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333785335_Managemen...
- timeeater 6y ago
  As other said, it is not that unusual that individual units are full. As for staff, if things would become dire, surely more capacity could be mustered (people working overtime and so on). And if it is really such a limiting factor, the statistics should be adjusted accordingly. I think it is just a wildcard argument without any specific numbers. You can imagine whatever you like. How many nurses are available? How many are sick, specifically? Also, sick nurses tend to be well again after two weeks (if they have Covid).
DanBC 6y ago
You never run ICUs at 100% because where would you put the people who have car crashes etc? Optimal rate depends on the country, but about 75% is typical.
- timeeater 6y ago
  Sure, but that is exactly the case in Germany, only 80% are in use, as would be expected in normal times. Presumably they can adjust by delaying surgical procedures that are not urgent.

by jansan 6y ago

adrianN 6y ago

The regional differences are pretty high, and beds are in many cases not the limiting factor. It's ICU nurses. If you can read German here is a source for Berlin: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/zu-viele-corona-patienten-auf-vivantes-stationen-berliner-grosskrankenhaus-vor-aufnahmestopp/26668216.html https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/zu-viele-corona-patienten... TLDR is only 85% of the beds are full, but there aren't enough nurses, so the emergency room will be closed. Several other hospitals in Berlin already stopped admitting new ICU patients.

jansan 6y ago
Yes, I read German. But this is not a singular event that has never happened before. Here is a report from 2017 that sounds familiar: https://www.welt.de/regionales/bayern/article161869919/Kliniken-schliessen-wegen-Ueberlastung-ihre-Notaufnahmen.html https://www.welt.de/regionales/bayern/article161869919/Klini...
- adrianN 6y ago
  Yes of course, there are other occasions where this happens, but I consider in very good evidence against the claim that there is no exceptional ICU load right now.
  - jansan 6y ago
    Yes, situation is bad, but we will make it. Prof. Kluge does not sound too pessimistic. If you have time, take a look at his report about the flu season 2017/18. Pretty grim stuff, more than 40% of intensive care patients died. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333785335_Management_der_saisonalen_Influenza_20172018_Erfahrungen_an_einem_deutschen_Universitatsklinikum_-_Management_of_seasonal_influenza_in_20172018_at_a_German_tertiary-care_hospital https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333785335_Managemen...
timeeater 6y ago
As other said, it is not that unusual that individual units are full. As for staff, if things would become dire, surely more capacity could be mustered (people working overtime and so on). And if it is really such a limiting factor, the statistics should be adjusted accordingly. I think it is just a wildcard argument without any specific numbers. You can imagine whatever you like. How many nurses are available? How many are sick, specifically? Also, sick nurses tend to be well again after two weeks (if they have Covid).

DanBC 6y ago

You never run ICUs at 100% because where would you put the people who have car crashes etc? Optimal rate depends on the country, but about 75% is typical.

timeeater 6y ago
Sure, but that is exactly the case in Germany, only 80% are in use, as would be expected in normal times. Presumably they can adjust by delaying surgical procedures that are not urgent.