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> A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health offi

> A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. What they should be screaming is, "Why did you squander the last lockdown? Why aren't we testing and tracing on massive scale? Why didn't we build more hospital capacity in the time we had?" The state squandered the time we bought ourselves with the last lockdown. For example, where is the army of contact tracers we were supposed to hire?

nostrademons 6y ago
I think that most of that exists. The state has an army of contact tracers, you just don't hear about them or their work because all of it is private and confidential. I know people through the grapevine who have been informed that they've been exposed through daycare etc. I'm awaiting the results of my second COVID test (out of an abundance of caution, I don't actually believe I have it), and the process for getting it is super easy - fill out a form online and drive through, you're in and out in 5 minutes. There's a first-hand report of a contact tracer's job here: https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-francisco-you-won-t-believe-stories-i-hear https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr... The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space. The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.
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nostrademons 6y ago

I think that most of that exists. The state has an army of contact tracers, you just don't hear about them or their work because all of it is private and confidential. I know people through the grapevine who have been informed that they've been exposed through daycare etc. I'm awaiting the results of my second COVID test (out of an abundance of caution, I don't actually believe I have it), and the process for getting it is super easy - fill out a form online and drive through, you're in and out in 5 minutes. There's a first-hand report of a contact tracer's job here: https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-francisco-you-won-t-believe-stories-i-hear https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr... The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space. The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]