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A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health offici

A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. I worry that this will end up being counterproductive, though. Probably the net number of people meeting other people will go down. However, of those who still meet other people, they will likely meet somewhere indoors (someone's home for dinner), which is much more dangerous than outdoor dining.

yellowapple 6y ago
I feel like we're going to end up with the opposite question: "What good were these lockdowns when the medical system collapsed anyway?" The current lockdown strategies, like with many political measures, seem to be more motivated by "we need to look like we're doing something" than "we need to fix the problem".
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  Collapse isn't a binary. Collapse could mean everything from a small number of the highly vulnerable being triaged away from care to a full on black-plague-like "bring out your dead".
twblalock 6y ago
> A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. What they should be screaming is, "Why did you squander the last lockdown? Why aren't we testing and tracing on massive scale? Why didn't we build more hospital capacity in the time we had?" The state squandered the time we bought ourselves with the last lockdown. For example, where is the army of contact tracers we were supposed to hire?
- nostrademons 6y ago
  I think that most of that exists. The state has an army of contact tracers, you just don't hear about them or their work because all of it is private and confidential. I know people through the grapevine who have been informed that they've been exposed through daycare etc. I'm awaiting the results of my second COVID test (out of an abundance of caution, I don't actually believe I have it), and the process for getting it is super easy - fill out a form online and drive through, you're in and out in 5 minutes. There's a first-hand report of a contact tracer's job here: https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-francisco-you-won-t-believe-stories-i-hear https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr... The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space. The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
JamesBarney 6y ago
The biggest lever they could have pushed was releasing a vaccine earlier.
- duskwuff 6y ago
  That's... not something that state or local authorities have the ability to do.
  - JamesBarney 6y ago
    Sorry I wasn't clear, I was talking about public health officials in general not local and state public health officials specifically. OP talks about how people will be coming with pitchforks for public health officials. I think more ire will be directed at national public health officials than state and local ones. The national ones obviously screwed up when it came to messaging regarding masks, and I think less obviously but just as importantly screwed up when it game to rolling out the vaccine. These decisions are probably more impactful than the decisions state and local health officials made around whether bars are open or not.

yellowapple 6y ago

I feel like we're going to end up with the opposite question: "What good were these lockdowns when the medical system collapsed anyway?" The current lockdown strategies, like with many political measures, seem to be more motivated by "we need to look like we're doing something" than "we need to fix the problem".

bryanlarsen 6y ago
Collapse isn't a binary. Collapse could mean everything from a small number of the highly vulnerable being triaged away from care to a full on black-plague-like "bring out your dead".

twblalock 6y ago

> A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position. What they should be screaming is, "Why did you squander the last lockdown? Why aren't we testing and tracing on massive scale? Why didn't we build more hospital capacity in the time we had?" The state squandered the time we bought ourselves with the last lockdown. For example, where is the army of contact tracers we were supposed to hire?

nostrademons 6y ago
I think that most of that exists. The state has an army of contact tracers, you just don't hear about them or their work because all of it is private and confidential. I know people through the grapevine who have been informed that they've been exposed through daycare etc. I'm awaiting the results of my second COVID test (out of an abundance of caution, I don't actually believe I have it), and the process for getting it is super easy - fill out a form online and drive through, you're in and out in 5 minutes. There's a first-hand report of a contact tracer's job here: https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-francisco-you-won-t-believe-stories-i-hear https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr... The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space. The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

JamesBarney 6y ago

The biggest lever they could have pushed was releasing a vaccine earlier.

duskwuff 6y ago
That's... not something that state or local authorities have the ability to do.
- JamesBarney 6y ago
  Sorry I wasn't clear, I was talking about public health officials in general not local and state public health officials specifically. OP talks about how people will be coming with pitchforks for public health officials. I think more ire will be directed at national public health officials than state and local ones. The national ones obviously screwed up when it came to messaging regarding masks, and I think less obviously but just as importantly screwed up when it game to rolling out the vaccine. These decisions are probably more impactful than the decisions state and local health officials made around whether bars are open or not.