4 ms·
As many users as Facebook, many of those users have entered their payment details, a great brand that is just as big as Facebook, and synonymous around the worl
by nikcub 16y ago
As many users as Facebook, many of those users have entered their payment details, a great brand that is just as big as Facebook, and synonymous around the world with communication.
I just happen to be talking to a non-tech computer user on the weekend who told me that he and his entire family and friends overseas do not use Facebook because Skype does everything they need in terms of staying in touch and it has worked for them for years.
They should start over with the software and spin it into a web and mobile service. It is a great platform to take on Facebook with - a much simpler service for basic video or text chat, and add in some photo sharing, email, etc.
Google really missed out on an opportunity here - I bet that whatever they end up producing internally will not be merely as good or as popular as a new Skype run by Microsoft.
In terms of the price, it would almost be a worthwhile purchase with just the users and brand - the near-billion in revenue is just a bonus. Skype has near $1B in revenue, and most of the expenditure is related to writing down and amortizing assets as part of the acquisition (something that most PE groups do when they takeover a company - part of what makes some of these deals profitable and worthwhile). Number of Skype users and revenue is growing remarkably. If you look at the published financials[1], $97M was written off as cost of acquisition, another $250M was amortization of assets that were written down at acquisition. Their 'real' costs are $131M in marketing, $72M in development and $104M in administration - which brings gross profit closer to $500M+ for YE 2011. PE of 17-20 is a bargain, especially considering that Microsoft can significantly reduce expenditures by integrating the company into the web group.
I think this is a great deal, very different to ICQ (the immediate parallel that everybody is drawing) and much closer potential to the eBay PayPal deal. If done right, this could work out as well for Microsoft financially as PayPal did for eBay (remember PayPal wasn't doing so well financially at the time [2] - everybody called that deal crazy at the time as well) - add to that the potential of Microsoft taking on Facebook in the 'online communication for ordinary folk' sector - and it is a great,
[1] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498209/000119312511056174/ds1a.htm http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498209/0001193125110...
[2] http://www.ygoodman.com/ppipo.html http://www.ygoodman.com/ppipo.html
- brudgers 16y ago>"As many users as Facebook" I suspect that there is a closer correlation to one account = one person with Skype than Facebook since there is little social incentive to create multiple Skype accounts. In addition, the strength of relationships between Skype customers is more easily determined. Finally, Skype has the potential to scale well into MicroSoft's core B2B business model.
- nikcub 16y agoI should have asterixed that with 'registered'. Updated numbers are out now as part of the msft press release: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2532230 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2532230 Facebook has 3x active over Skype - but as you mention, while Facebook are straight-up about their numbers, it is still hard to compare because of differing methodologies and different app types
- zipdog 16y agoI've wondered what impact Zynga has on artificially boosting Facebook's active user count. Zynga's games provide an incentive to operate multiple accounts, and counts about 200m active users, so if only 5% of those users were each running multiple accounts (say 5 extra), that's around 50m dupe accounts. (I figure thats an over-estimation though) Not to mention the other reasons people create dupe Facebook accounts
- mcarlin 16y ago>especially considering that Microsoft can significantly reduce expenditures by integrating the company into the web group This is a business truth generally, but Microsoft has proved a very strong exception. Historically their attempts to integrate their web and communications acquisitions into the web group (or at least the Microsoft frameworks) have resulted in stagnation and/or collapse. Whatever they gained in operating costs, they lost many times over in value. Hotmail, Mesh, TellMe, Groove, Colloquis, and Danger all experienced terrible stagnation as they integrated into Microsoft. Yes, even Hotmail, which has never recovered as a brand from the three or four year period where they moved from unix to windows servers, producing no new features and allowing Gmail to gain rapid traction.