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I dont get this logic. If it is going to take months to scale up manufacturing then we can just add a few more days and take another 2,000 deaths per day? How m
by haltingproblem 6y ago
I dont get this logic. If it is going to take months to scale up manufacturing then we can just add a few more days and take another 2,000 deaths per day? How many few more days are acceptable?
- senkora 6y agoI think the logic is that the scaling up manufacturing is already occurring in parallel, so it isn’t as simple as an N day delay causing N days worth of deaths. The excess deaths would be N times the (small) fraction of daily deaths that would be prevented by the initial (small) use of vaccines. I don’t know how true this is because I don’t know what the situation is with vaccine stockpiles, which could change the analysis.
- db48x 6y agoExactly. I bet the Gantt chart for this is pretty big and complicated, with lots of work by multiple groups going on simultaneously. I bet the work started a year ago, doing things like deciding which other manufacturing activities they would halt or slow if they had a viable vaccine, or if they would open new manufacturing facilities. I just hope that they didn't waste too much time making Gantt charts.