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One of the issues that companies like Waymo will have to face is that it's not going to be enough to be better than a human driver, you actually have to be bett

by pontus 6y ago

One of the issues that companies like Waymo will have to face is that it's not going to be enough to be better than a human driver, you actually have to be better than a human driver with lane assist, blind spot checkers, adaptive cruise control, etc. As self driving technology matures, so does driving assistance technology. The 100 Million miles that a human driver will have to drive on average to die in a crash will be pushed to a billion miles+ before L5 is achieved, effectively moving the goal post further. Ultimately self driving technology has to be better not than a human, but than human intervention. It has to be so good that it recognizes when a human incorrectly intervenes to override L4 decisions and then be able to override that human's overriding. Only then will autonomous vehicles overtake humans.

ljlolel 6y ago
Yes, and I write about that and Tesla's active safety features here https://jperla.medium.com/tesla-saves-lives-waymo-gambles-passenger-lives-3ee2d0e55f5f https://jperla.medium.com/tesla-saves-lives-waymo-gambles-pa...
bbarnett 6y ago
One real issue is that as automated systems, assist or full driving take over, human skill will decrease. Yes, there are people with poor coordination, spatial perception, the list goes on. Genetics makes a difference. Yet also, training makes a difference. So for those with normal or above normal genetic bounds for the above, training helps immensely. And driving, responding quickly to issues, is often about training. Hence all the driving ed programs now mandated in many localities, prior to obtaining a license. Still, it goes beyond that. One becomes more skillful, better at driving, as time progresses. At least, those capable of that. Meanwhile, we're moving humans further and further from direct learning experiences, and with each 'crutch', reducing training scenarios as well. Of course, we're on a path here. The goal is ultimately to move more towards safety. However I suspect that "things will get worse", before better, as drivers will be less trained on manual tasks. Edit: My main point is, we're going to get to a point of 'AI drives, you monitor/intervene" eventually, as the mainstay. Yet new drivers, will be less able to intervene. They won't have developed, or trained, via the same number of "close calls", and direct driving experiences. Eventually, asking drivers to "intervene", will be asking for the least skilled to take over, to monitor, to watch. And there are a lot of areas that are very high bar to handle with AI. Think on this ; all current driving tech is literally 'low hanging fruit'. It's been a lot of work, I grant that. Yet it's been a lot of work for just that low hanging fruit! For example, most AI driving is urban, in the southern US. How about: - In rural Canada - In the middle of a snow storm - With ice, and white-out conditions on the road - on rural dirt backroads, which are 20 or 30 km long, comprised of potholes and other such irregularities - with zero mapping - at -40C I have extremely strong doubts that AI can even remotely handle that well currently. I'd trust a 5 year old to handle this task far better. Now, what of drivers who never really drive, end up on this side road, and get 'stuck', with the AI unable to handle things? When all of the above is normal in the winter. For example, often schools do not close in rural Quebec, for such typical, and normal, conditions.
- ljlolel 6y ago
  Yes, I cover that in Why Tesla Autopilot ought to be awful, until it’s perfect https://jperla.medium.com/why-tesla-autopilot-ought-to-be-awful-until-its-perfect-8fb0b0764ef8?sk=85c295ce3a54f5689d12e64999e94eab https://jperla.medium.com/why-tesla-autopilot-ought-to-be-aw...
  - bbarnett 6y ago
    Hmm, you definitely also cover the low hanging fruit aspect a bit, as well.
intricatedetail 6y ago
I hope by human intervention you mean someone saying: "car please turn around and take me to Rio." and then car says "did you mean Rio de Janeiro?" And they say: "Sim, por favor, vá em frente" and the car says: "you wont be able to charge me on that route, but I can take you to nearest airport. O que você acha?"
perl4ever 6y ago
In my opinion, AI has to be better than the average professional driver. Who is in turn significantly better than the average texting, sleepy, angry, drunken idiot. My uncle had a plaque for a million miles driving his bus without an accident.

by pontus 6y ago

ljlolel 6y ago

Yes, and I write about that and Tesla's active safety features here https://jperla.medium.com/tesla-saves-lives-waymo-gambles-passenger-lives-3ee2d0e55f5f https://jperla.medium.com/tesla-saves-lives-waymo-gambles-pa...

bbarnett 6y ago

One real issue is that as automated systems, assist or full driving take over, human skill will decrease. Yes, there are people with poor coordination, spatial perception, the list goes on. Genetics makes a difference. Yet also, training makes a difference. So for those with normal or above normal genetic bounds for the above, training helps immensely. And driving, responding quickly to issues, is often about training. Hence all the driving ed programs now mandated in many localities, prior to obtaining a license. Still, it goes beyond that. One becomes more skillful, better at driving, as time progresses. At least, those capable of that. Meanwhile, we're moving humans further and further from direct learning experiences, and with each 'crutch', reducing training scenarios as well. Of course, we're on a path here. The goal is ultimately to move more towards safety. However I suspect that "things will get worse", before better, as drivers will be less trained on manual tasks. Edit: My main point is, we're going to get to a point of 'AI drives, you monitor/intervene" eventually, as the mainstay. Yet new drivers, will be less able to intervene. They won't have developed, or trained, via the same number of "close calls", and direct driving experiences. Eventually, asking drivers to "intervene", will be asking for the least skilled to take over, to monitor, to watch. And there are a lot of areas that are very high bar to handle with AI. Think on this ; all current driving tech is literally 'low hanging fruit'. It's been a lot of work, I grant that. Yet it's been a lot of work for just that low hanging fruit! For example, most AI driving is urban, in the southern US. How about: - In rural Canada - In the middle of a snow storm - With ice, and white-out conditions on the road - on rural dirt backroads, which are 20 or 30 km long, comprised of potholes and other such irregularities - with zero mapping - at -40C I have extremely strong doubts that AI can even remotely handle that well currently. I'd trust a 5 year old to handle this task far better. Now, what of drivers who never really drive, end up on this side road, and get 'stuck', with the AI unable to handle things? When all of the above is normal in the winter. For example, often schools do not close in rural Quebec, for such typical, and normal, conditions.

ljlolel 6y ago
Yes, I cover that in Why Tesla Autopilot ought to be awful, until it’s perfect https://jperla.medium.com/why-tesla-autopilot-ought-to-be-awful-until-its-perfect-8fb0b0764ef8?sk=85c295ce3a54f5689d12e64999e94eab https://jperla.medium.com/why-tesla-autopilot-ought-to-be-aw...
- bbarnett 6y ago
  Hmm, you definitely also cover the low hanging fruit aspect a bit, as well.

intricatedetail 6y ago

I hope by human intervention you mean someone saying: "car please turn around and take me to Rio." and then car says "did you mean Rio de Janeiro?" And they say: "Sim, por favor, vá em frente" and the car says: "you wont be able to charge me on that route, but I can take you to nearest airport. O que você acha?"

perl4ever 6y ago

In my opinion, AI has to be better than the average professional driver. Who is in turn significantly better than the average texting, sleepy, angry, drunken idiot. My uncle had a plaque for a million miles driving his bus without an accident.