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A puzzle I'm facing right now professionally is in what way to take Corona into account in actuarial longevity / mortality models. Current thinking is it doesn'
by wjnc 6y ago
A puzzle I'm facing right now professionally is in what way to take Corona into account in actuarial longevity / mortality models. Current thinking is it doesn't impact the long term best estimate of longevity. We will probably resume the ever upward trend in lifespans after we've successfully managed this storm. But what to think of the 1-in-200 year shock scenario? Do we expect another pandemic in the next 200 years (:: Yes, return frequency of pandemics is about 20-30 years)? Is this the biggest we can face or are there even bigger shocks (Black Death-like scenarios)? How to account for differences in policy response (these models use data from many countries as a baseline) and expected future responses (will we learn something from this crisis). And then the kicker: How to model this rigourously enough to get your model past supervisors.
- rufus_foreman 6y ago>> We will probably resume the ever upward trend in lifespans after we've successfully managed this storm US life expectancy was lower in 2019 than it was in 2013. Pretty unprecedented outside of things like the collapse of the Soviet Union. That's probably a bigger issue than the pandemic long term.
- pashamur 6y agoThere's large variance there depending on demographic factors & income quintiles. Life expectancy is going up for some, while down for others: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44846.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44846.pdf "Their most relevant finding for Social Security reform is that life expectancy increased continuously with income and that, according to them, “[t]here was no dividing line above or below which higher income was not associated with higher life expectancy.” At increasingly higher levels of income, they report that an increase in income of a given dollar amount produced positive but smaller gains in life expectancy. "