4 ms·

Meanwhile in Sweden - 2020 deaths are tracking to be lower than 2018, 2017, and 2012: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ https

Meanwhile in Sweden - 2020 deaths are tracking to be lower than 2018, 2017, and 2012: https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-... The spike in deaths seen earlier this year is similar to the 2009 flu epidemic: https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-deaths-1851.jpg https://swprs.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sweden-monthly-... Its unclear whether COVID presents a mortality burden any greater than regular influenza - and whether lockdowns or restrictions are at all warranted.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
arrrg 6y ago
Sweden has lots of restrictions in place. And had.
nikolay 6y ago
People have so many misconceptions about the measures in Sweden! Some are much stricter than elsewhere!
- ttoinou 6y ago
  Please elaborate ! :)
  - nikolay 6y ago
    Everybody believes there are no restrictions at all and people carry on with their lives just like did before. Nobody talks about group gathering limits (smaller size than in most countries), that restaurants service hot food with much better safety than here in the States, etc. People still believe that Sweden's strategy is herd immunity without any interventions!
    - ttoinou 6y ago
      What interventions ? Small groups isn't that big of a restriction if you compare to others countries, and it only came very recently
Jeema101 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking
pwinnski 6y ago
Yes, over the 332 days of 2020 on that chart, there are fewer deaths than the 365 days of 2019. 257 average deaths per day in 2020 vs 252 in 2018, which was the previous record high, putting 2020 on pace to become the new high record. That assumes that deaths are evenly distributed throughout the year, which at least in the US, they are not. An annual snapshot of "excess deaths" lead to bad intuition. A weekly snapshot is much more helpful, leads to more accurate intuition, and generally is preferred. The second chart is from October, based on the URL, and therefore missed the large spike of deaths in November. Incomplete data leads to bad analysis.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- IronRanger 6y ago
  There was no spike in deaths in November in Sweden: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps Weekly snapshots are too volatile. If everyone who was going to die in March dies in the first week of March, but none die in the remaining three weeks, this will show a death spike whilst the number of monthly deaths is unchanged. If someone at the end of their natural lifespan dies a few weeks earlier or later than usual, this is not a national concern. 2019 was a weak flu season. We need to examine this data across broader time scales to avoid the hysteria we are currently experiencing.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
    That claim about deaths in November in Sweden is not supported by the data collected by Johns Hopkins. Kevin Drum puts together a daily chart showing 7 day rolling averages deaths-per-million attributable to COVID19. Here's a recent one: https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/blog_covid19_country_comparison_december_03_deaths.gif https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/blog_... from: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/12/coronavirus-growth-in-western-countries-december-3-update/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/12/coronavirus-g...
  - pwinnski 6y ago
ojnabieoot 6y ago
“But... what about countries such as the US and Brazil, where far more people have died of COVID than of any recent influenza? Less than 10,000 Brazilians die of the flu each year compared to 180,000 covid deaths.” “Those... don’t count!”

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

arrrg 6y ago

Sweden has lots of restrictions in place. And had.

nikolay 6y ago

People have so many misconceptions about the measures in Sweden! Some are much stricter than elsewhere!

ttoinou 6y ago
Please elaborate ! :)
- nikolay 6y ago
  Everybody believes there are no restrictions at all and people carry on with their lives just like did before. Nobody talks about group gathering limits (smaller size than in most countries), that restaurants service hot food with much better safety than here in the States, etc. People still believe that Sweden's strategy is herd immunity without any interventions!
  - ttoinou 6y ago
    What interventions ? Small groups isn't that big of a restriction if you compare to others countries, and it only came very recently

Jeema101 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking

pwinnski 6y ago

Yes, over the 332 days of 2020 on that chart, there are fewer deaths than the 365 days of 2019. 257 average deaths per day in 2020 vs 252 in 2018, which was the previous record high, putting 2020 on pace to become the new high record. That assumes that deaths are evenly distributed throughout the year, which at least in the US, they are not. An annual snapshot of "excess deaths" lead to bad intuition. A weekly snapshot is much more helpful, leads to more accurate intuition, and generally is preferred. The second chart is from October, based on the URL, and therefore missed the large spike of deaths in November. Incomplete data leads to bad analysis.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
IronRanger 6y ago
There was no spike in deaths in November in Sweden: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps Weekly snapshots are too volatile. If everyone who was going to die in March dies in the first week of March, but none die in the remaining three weeks, this will show a death spike whilst the number of monthly deaths is unchanged. If someone at the end of their natural lifespan dies a few weeks earlier or later than usual, this is not a national concern. 2019 was a weak flu season. We need to examine this data across broader time scales to avoid the hysteria we are currently experiencing.
- PaulDavisThe1st 6y ago
  That claim about deaths in November in Sweden is not supported by the data collected by Johns Hopkins. Kevin Drum puts together a daily chart showing 7 day rolling averages deaths-per-million attributable to COVID19. Here's a recent one: https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/blog_covid19_country_comparison_december_03_deaths.gif https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/blog_... from: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/12/coronavirus-growth-in-western-countries-december-3-update/ https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/12/coronavirus-g...
- pwinnski 6y ago

ojnabieoot 6y ago

“But... what about countries such as the US and Brazil, where far more people have died of COVID than of any recent influenza? Less than 10,000 Brazilians die of the flu each year compared to 180,000 covid deaths.” “Those... don’t count!”