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Waymo is an extremely specialized closed system that can't be generalized to the needs of cross-country long haul trucking, if it could we wouldn't be having th

Waymo is an extremely specialized closed system that can't be generalized to the needs of cross-country long haul trucking, if it could we wouldn't be having this conversation. The fueling concerns are pretty trivial from an engineering perspective, the problem is one of infrastructure. Yes, industry could prop up some fueling stations, but nothing approaching the coverage necessary to make it more practical than e.g freight by rail. Security concerns are very real, there is no such thing as "impossible to steal" and the threat of cameras are trivially defeated by way of masks under cover of darkness. Transferring a semi's worth of cargo is only slow if you're not prepared to do it in advance. I also want to reemphasize the shift in psychology associated with removing the human element, criminals are absolutely going to be emboldened by the fact they are dealing with a harmless predictable computer and not a human person that might resist their efforts, cause them injury, or otherwise complicate the risk involved. It's also well known in criminal psychology that people are much more willing to justify criminal behavior they perceive as victimless. Setting aside my practical objections, yes, it's true that it doesn't have to be better to start, but I think there's no chance it gains momentum since there is a lot of up-front cost and complexity for relatively small financial gain vs just e.g. freight by rail.

wpietri 6y ago
You make a lot of assertions here, but I don't see any data backing them. Fueling stations already exist. The only "infrastructure" needed is an agreement with a couple truck stop chains than when a robot truck pulls in, somebody goes out fill it up. Full-service gas stations are not a radical innovation. I think your security concerns are a fairy tale. I especially suspect you have never loaded or unloaded a semi. A mask might keep a person's face from being seen, but it can't keep the theft from being detected. Trucks generally drive on well-policed, limited-access roads. For this to work, time of trouble to time of police response has to be larger than the time to break into, unload, and load a semi's worth of goods. By the side of the road. At night. Plus you need more time to get a semi, which is not an inconspicuous, far enough away from the scene of the crime, that the cops won't find it. Will people try it? Sure. But I don't see any reason to think it becomes a major issue. Certainly not a dealbreaker, because if I'm wrong and there's a crime wave like this, a bunch of well-funded, powerful groups will be immediately demanding better police response and new laws.

wpietri 6y ago

You make a lot of assertions here, but I don't see any data backing them. Fueling stations already exist. The only "infrastructure" needed is an agreement with a couple truck stop chains than when a robot truck pulls in, somebody goes out fill it up. Full-service gas stations are not a radical innovation. I think your security concerns are a fairy tale. I especially suspect you have never loaded or unloaded a semi. A mask might keep a person's face from being seen, but it can't keep the theft from being detected. Trucks generally drive on well-policed, limited-access roads. For this to work, time of trouble to time of police response has to be larger than the time to break into, unload, and load a semi's worth of goods. By the side of the road. At night. Plus you need more time to get a semi, which is not an inconspicuous, far enough away from the scene of the crime, that the cops won't find it. Will people try it? Sure. But I don't see any reason to think it becomes a major issue. Certainly not a dealbreaker, because if I'm wrong and there's a crime wave like this, a bunch of well-funded, powerful groups will be immediately demanding better police response and new laws.