Looking at the 7 day average of daily deaths: in Lithuania since Nov 21 it oscillated between 15 and 16, and that started exactly two weeks after the introducti

Looking at the 7 day average of daily deaths: in Lithuania since Nov 21 it oscillated between 15 and 16, and that started exactly two weeks after the introduction of the measures the growth in the number of deaths stopped. We also know that the deaths are lagging indicator of measures: before people die they have to pass the incubation phase, get sick, get worse and die, which should take a few weeks at least. Based on that data, I can conclude that the measures do show some effect. The effect is less observable in the "cases" data, where the daily number of cases indeed grew since 7th, but even there there should be a lag of a little less than a week from the point the measures start (it takes time for the people who were infected before measures to incubate and be able to be tested positive or get sick). Interestingly, that is what we see there: there was growth in 7-day average daily cases until Nov 13, then only on Nov 21 that number gets higher again. Which indeed points to the possibility of measures working less from that point on, but at least the growth since Nov 7 is also obviously lower than it was before, which is also what can be expected if the factor that the newer measures bring is low enough that the speed of the spread is reduced, but not high enough to reverse it. So there are signs that the measures, as much as they are followed, have some effect, but sadly not enough to reverse the trend. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/lithuania/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/lithuania/ Slovenia, on another side, has practically the same amount of daily cases for the last 30 days, when 7 day moving average is calculated, but the equvalent calculation of deaths show flattening only between 17th and 26th, and then there's growth of daily deaths again. As the average number of daily deaths is the statistics which is less influenced by the number of tests performed and it's independent on the success of contact tracing, that shows that in Slovenia the spread is still not under control, and additionally, that the month long flattening of the daily cases could mean that there's a bottleneck in health system -- that relatively fixed number of persons could be processed daily, but that due to the priorities those who are processed are, through the time, the patients with worse conditions, resulting in continuous growth of deaths (and the last is just a hypothesis which can be verified or rejected based on the exact related information from Slovenia). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/slovenia/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/slovenia/