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I've seen this point made repeatedly, but haven't seen what scientists think is LIKELY -- based on similar vaccines, based on initial data, whatever. I don't k
by elicash 6y ago
I've seen this point made repeatedly, but haven't seen what scientists think is LIKELY -- based on similar vaccines, based on initial data, whatever.
I don't know if scientists GENUINELY have no clue, or if maybe we think it'll likely be good news but can't say it yet because we're worried that people will get a vaccine and then behave irresponsibly.
It sounds like we're going to start giving this vaccine out without certainty on this point, so maybe give a sense of likelihoods for the possibilities. Maybe Pfizer can't because of lawsuits or something, but experts could certainly weigh in for articles like this. It seems like we're afraid of trusting people with the best info we have because we're worried they'll stop wearing masks and throw parties and such. I don't think withholding info is a great way to build trust.
Health experts should feel empowered to say "We think X but only with (let's say) 10% certainty" because there's no study specifically on this topic for COVID. They can always add "without 100% certainty we need to all continue to wear masks because that the stakes are so severe on hospitalizations and death."
Instead, it seems like they hold back info out of concern the public cannot be trusted.
- XorNot 6y agoScientists will never go on record saying what they think is likely without having data which says "60% occurrence rate". Because without data, it's just conjecture and guesswork - and they're very likely to be catastrophically wrong, but have their word taken as gospel (then later used as "see scientists are wrong so <totally unfounded claim with no experience backing it> could be just as right!")
- elicash 6y agoNobody is asking scientists to say anything without data. What scientists COULD do, for example, is explain what happens with other vaccines, with other viruses.
- twblalock 6y agoThe less questionable information that circulates, the better. There are already many conspiracy theories about this vaccine. Scientists shouldn't be out there causing more confusion or giving people a kernel of doubt that they can blow up into another conspiracy theory.
- elicash 6y agoIs it your take that public health officials shouldn't have been recommending masks before studies came out specifically on covid? Or should they have followed scientists from Asian nations that said to wear them because even though we don't have all the info, it looks a lot like other viruses we've seen where masks were helpful?