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An Atom-based laptop, maybe? I don't think that the Eee or Wind are proper competitors, but even the most expensive versions cost around half what a basic MacB

An Atom-based laptop, maybe? I don't think that the Eee or Wind are proper competitors, but even the most expensive versions cost around half what a basic MacBook costs. People are willing to forgive a lot for that sort of price differential. It's nice to dream, anyways.

Alex3917 18y ago
Two assumptions: A) The profit margin will stay at 35% until this new product is released. b) This product won't be announced until August 19th at the earliest. That means if the plan is to have a 30% unit margin at the end of the quarter, they are going to have something like a 25% margin for the second half of the quarter. Now since they are reducing the margin, we know they are planning to increase the volume. An atom laptop, while it would be cool, just doesn't have the potential to move several million units within the first month, which is roughly what it would take to lower the margins by that much. In fact, there is literally no new product that Apple could introduce that would sell enough units within the first month to lower the per unit margins by 10%. So the change must involve some existing product. I think there are two realistic options here. First, they just reduce plain reduce the price of the new MacBooks and MacBook Pros. A real possibility. Second, they add an expensive component to one of their existing products. While Blueray or DDR3 would cost enough to make the numbers add up, there is no way either of those would generate enough excitement to create the extra volume Apple is looking for. So I think if they add a new component to an existing product, the only real option is SSD. Either they make SSD standard in all MacBooks, or else they replace the normal iPod with an iPod touch with way more SSD than it currently has. At least to my thinking, either a price cut or SSD are the only ways I can see the numbers adding up for Q4.
- prospero 18y ago
  Granted, there are bound to be other price reductions, but the article makes explicit mention of a new product. Also, unless they plan to take a significant loss on the SSDs, I don't see how making them standard will make their hardware more price competitive. The Atom laptop is a total shot in the dark, and is likely wrong, but it seems like there must be something more significant in the pipeline.
  - Alex3917 18y ago
    If their margins are lower and they want to make the same amount of money, that means they have to sell more. But selling more could come from either lowering the price, or keeping the price fixed but adding value. Thinking about it more, DDR3 does seem like a possibility. I don't think there is any way they can sell it to the general public on speed, but it does use about 30% less power. I'm not sure how much power RAM uses in general, but if it increased the battery life significantly (combined with Montevina) then that would be a powerful incentive to get people to switch. Either way, my money is still on the new product being the redesigned MacBook, but I'd love to be proved wrong in a few weeks.
  - evgen 18y ago
    Actually, the conf call mentioned a "product transition", not a new product. They are changing something in their existing lineup, not adding a new product to the lineup.
    - prospero 18y ago
      From the article: The new, unnamed product will continue to have "technologies and features that others can't match," according to the CFO. I took that to mean that it's entirely new, but it is a press release, so maybe they're talking about some minor change like it's something new and wonderful.

Alex3917 18y ago

Two assumptions: A) The profit margin will stay at 35% until this new product is released. b) This product won't be announced until August 19th at the earliest. That means if the plan is to have a 30% unit margin at the end of the quarter, they are going to have something like a 25% margin for the second half of the quarter. Now since they are reducing the margin, we know they are planning to increase the volume. An atom laptop, while it would be cool, just doesn't have the potential to move several million units within the first month, which is roughly what it would take to lower the margins by that much. In fact, there is literally no new product that Apple could introduce that would sell enough units within the first month to lower the per unit margins by 10%. So the change must involve some existing product. I think there are two realistic options here. First, they just reduce plain reduce the price of the new MacBooks and MacBook Pros. A real possibility. Second, they add an expensive component to one of their existing products. While Blueray or DDR3 would cost enough to make the numbers add up, there is no way either of those would generate enough excitement to create the extra volume Apple is looking for. So I think if they add a new component to an existing product, the only real option is SSD. Either they make SSD standard in all MacBooks, or else they replace the normal iPod with an iPod touch with way more SSD than it currently has. At least to my thinking, either a price cut or SSD are the only ways I can see the numbers adding up for Q4.

prospero 18y ago
Granted, there are bound to be other price reductions, but the article makes explicit mention of a new product. Also, unless they plan to take a significant loss on the SSDs, I don't see how making them standard will make their hardware more price competitive. The Atom laptop is a total shot in the dark, and is likely wrong, but it seems like there must be something more significant in the pipeline.
- Alex3917 18y ago
  If their margins are lower and they want to make the same amount of money, that means they have to sell more. But selling more could come from either lowering the price, or keeping the price fixed but adding value. Thinking about it more, DDR3 does seem like a possibility. I don't think there is any way they can sell it to the general public on speed, but it does use about 30% less power. I'm not sure how much power RAM uses in general, but if it increased the battery life significantly (combined with Montevina) then that would be a powerful incentive to get people to switch. Either way, my money is still on the new product being the redesigned MacBook, but I'd love to be proved wrong in a few weeks.
- evgen 18y ago
  Actually, the conf call mentioned a "product transition", not a new product. They are changing something in their existing lineup, not adding a new product to the lineup.
  - prospero 18y ago
    From the article: The new, unnamed product will continue to have "technologies and features that others can't match," according to the CFO. I took that to mean that it's entirely new, but it is a press release, so maybe they're talking about some minor change like it's something new and wonderful.