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So first, the headline seems to be based on "primary energy supply" - I assume that includes transportation, vehicles, heating and so on. Even if Germany went 1

So first, the headline seems to be based on "primary energy supply" - I assume that includes transportation, vehicles, heating and so on. Even if Germany went 100% renewable/nuclear for electricity they'd still be at ~60% fossil fuels in "primary energy shares" (from spit-balling the figures). I think that comparison was chosen to make the German "Energiewende" look worse, it does better when just looking at energy production. If we look at electricity shares, then Germany did better albeit still at an undeniably high cost. And second, as has been discussed in another article shared on HN - Germany bank-rolled a lot of the solar "virtuous cycle" and China's solar industry. Now any following country can just follow suit and achieve the same carbon goals much cheaper, even if they 100% follow what Germans did, because the technology is more familiar and manufacturing is more efficient. Kind of a "first-mover disadvantage". Though I think many Germans are ok with financing many of the advances in renewables. Edit: I forgot to add, this time period also coincides with Germany's prompt/hasty nuclear exit after Fukushima which was expensive but quite popular. The two very last graphs on energy production mix show that the US mostly increased natural gas for coal and Germany renewables for nuclear, and then the last few years finally renewables for coal. There seems to be an acceleration of renewables adoption in the last 3 years and Germany decreed to exit coal-based energy production by 2038 afaik.

woodpanel 6y ago
"Germany did better albeit still at an undeniably high cost … bank-rolled China's solar industry" Can echo that. The RENIXX global stock index, comprised of 30 companies in the renewables sector, shed one German company after another (only two are left in it today), while most of the index's points come from Chinese and US companies. Renewables in Germany are reaching a glass ceiling in their electricity share, as renewables aren't capable of providing base load. Embracing nuclear could untie that gordian knot. "Though I think many Germans are ok with financing many of the advances in renewables." Yes, many are. And then there are those, that are a bit more cash strapped (like the 300k households cut off from electricity each year) or work in energy intensive industries fearing for their jobs.
- altarius 6y ago
  "Yes, many are. And then there are those, that are a bit more cash strapped (like the 300k households cut off from electricity each year) or work in energy intensive industries fearing for their jobs." I don't think the US collects national stats but it sounds like Germany is pretty average in terms of "energy cost burden" amongst European countries. [1] I found stats for CA AND TX, 700k/40M disconnected in CA in 2016 and 900k/30M in Texas vs Germany 330k/81M - for whatever it's worth, didn't check methodologies. [2] [1] https://energytransition.org/2017/11/is-33000-german-households-without-power-a-lot/ https://energytransition.org/2017/11/is-33000-german-househo... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-13/in-great-american-blackout-millions-go-dark-due-to-unpaid-bills https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-13/in-great-....
  - woodpanel 6y ago
    I disagree. Germany has a pretty comfy welfare state, compared to the US and still 300k are cut off from electricity. Regarding energy cost burden: Germans pay the world’s highest price for electricity, whether it is in nominal dollars/mWh or in relative purchasing power parity/mWh [1] [1] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ea2f7700-2b1e-4611-a5dd-64917e356043/Energyprices2020.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ea2f7700-2b1e-4611-... figure 7
    - altarius 6y ago
      Agree on the high prices, don't agree that "Energiewende" was necessarily bad for the poorest Germans, exactly because it's a "comfy welfare state". Society decided it was worth the cost and they're paying it. Just want to point out that, if I'm not mistaken, at that point only heating was covered by welfare but not electricity. In case anyone assumed it should have been covered by welfare and ppl somehow still got cut off. The point was that high energy prices do not necessarily mean that more people are without power or that the poor are necessarily worse off - like everything it's a broader societal issue. Btw, I do agree on the disadvantage for energy intensive industries. Industry power prices there are ~3x US prices afaict.

woodpanel 6y ago

"Germany did better albeit still at an undeniably high cost … bank-rolled China's solar industry" Can echo that. The RENIXX global stock index, comprised of 30 companies in the renewables sector, shed one German company after another (only two are left in it today), while most of the index's points come from Chinese and US companies. Renewables in Germany are reaching a glass ceiling in their electricity share, as renewables aren't capable of providing base load. Embracing nuclear could untie that gordian knot. "Though I think many Germans are ok with financing many of the advances in renewables." Yes, many are. And then there are those, that are a bit more cash strapped (like the 300k households cut off from electricity each year) or work in energy intensive industries fearing for their jobs.

altarius 6y ago
"Yes, many are. And then there are those, that are a bit more cash strapped (like the 300k households cut off from electricity each year) or work in energy intensive industries fearing for their jobs." I don't think the US collects national stats but it sounds like Germany is pretty average in terms of "energy cost burden" amongst European countries. [1] I found stats for CA AND TX, 700k/40M disconnected in CA in 2016 and 900k/30M in Texas vs Germany 330k/81M - for whatever it's worth, didn't check methodologies. [2] [1] https://energytransition.org/2017/11/is-33000-german-households-without-power-a-lot/ https://energytransition.org/2017/11/is-33000-german-househo... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-13/in-great-american-blackout-millions-go-dark-due-to-unpaid-bills https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-13/in-great-....
- woodpanel 6y ago
  I disagree. Germany has a pretty comfy welfare state, compared to the US and still 300k are cut off from electricity. Regarding energy cost burden: Germans pay the world’s highest price for electricity, whether it is in nominal dollars/mWh or in relative purchasing power parity/mWh [1] [1] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ea2f7700-2b1e-4611-a5dd-64917e356043/Energyprices2020.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ea2f7700-2b1e-4611-... figure 7
  - altarius 6y ago
    Agree on the high prices, don't agree that "Energiewende" was necessarily bad for the poorest Germans, exactly because it's a "comfy welfare state". Society decided it was worth the cost and they're paying it. Just want to point out that, if I'm not mistaken, at that point only heating was covered by welfare but not electricity. In case anyone assumed it should have been covered by welfare and ppl somehow still got cut off. The point was that high energy prices do not necessarily mean that more people are without power or that the poor are necessarily worse off - like everything it's a broader societal issue. Btw, I do agree on the disadvantage for energy intensive industries. Industry power prices there are ~3x US prices afaict.