4 ms·

CDC specifically states that transmission occurs with prolonged (15+ minutes) contact in close quarters (less than six feet). I would love to see confirmed cas

CDC specifically states that transmission occurs with prolonged (15+ minutes) contact in close quarters (less than six feet). I would love to see confirmed cases of transmission from merely walking by someone when outside. I seriously don’t get the pull up the mask thing when I walk by someone outside. I’m not going to do it and I have zero expectation the other person do that either.

quesera 6y ago
> CDC specifically states that transmission occurs with prolonged (15+ minutes) contact in close quarters (less than six feet). No, that's not correct at all. But if I may take a guess at what you meant to write.. Those are guidelines based on estimated inflection points where more time or less distance increases the likelihood of transmission. They are presumed to be good-faith estimates, but they are based on difficult-to-collect data. It's probably reasonable to draw the conclusion that, if fully observed, the guidelines would drive R0 below 1.0 and the trendline would follow. But that doesn't mean that no transmission occurs in other situations. People sometimes sneeze unexpectedly. It takes a fraction of a second to put on the mask that prevents that event from becoming risky, or at least uncomfortable. Cheap insurance. It's also important to realize that "walking by someone while outside" can take many forms, so it's not clear that we're all talking about the same thing. Jogging on a narrow path is very different from strolling on a beach. Different measures are appropriate for different cases, but it's never harmful to use the mask, it's a reasonable habit to get into, and it makes people around you more comfortable. What's the trouble?
- hnrodey 6y ago
  Part of our current issue with covid is that you can find virtually anything to support whatever you want to believe. Myself included. So I guess it’s 15 minutes of cumulative exposure over the course of 24 hours. Indoors, sure wear a mask. I wear a mask where required indoors. But outdoors no thanks. What’s the trouble? A behavior devoid of reason is nothing more than a ritual. Furthermore, it sets the expectation that the behavior does actually provide tangible benefit leading to a false sense of security and lead to riskier behaviors than what would have otherwise occurred. Finally, masks are not created equal. How do I know the mask “you” are wearing is actually worth a damn? https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2020/10/26/cdc-revises-covid-19-guidance-on-close-contact/5991280002/ https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2020/10/26/cdc-re...
  - quesera 6y ago
    > A behavior devoid of reason is nothing more than a ritual. Absolutely. But we're not in "devoid of reason" territory here, we're in "with complex and sometimes impossible to quantify reasons" territory. So here are two people: - Person A is an epidemiologist-statistician who has run the numbers rigorously for his part of his county, factored in the likelihood of inter-county travel, and concluded that there's no benefit for any party to be wearing a mask in the specific situation they expected to be in when they left the house this morning, and that that situation is perfectly aligned with the reality of the day. - Person B is an average underinformed conspiracy theorist who thinks COVID is all a scam perpetrated by the medical establishment for more funding and to undermine Dear Leader and that it would go away like magic in the summer, no the fall, no the winter if only the media would stop talking about it and 5G. Neither person is wearing a mask. Neither person is wearing a baseball cap. How can you (random sidewalk passerby) tell the difference between these two people? I wear a mask, no matter how smart I'm feeling that day. (Note that this is not a response to why one should wear a mask, just a light observation of a positive side effect! But there is value in signalling, even if it's just to normalize the behavior so that the reluctant just stop bothering to protest about such a simple thing, and thereby get a jump on any asymptomatic spread that occurs semi-randomly in populations.. :)
    - hnrodey 6y ago
      The amount of mental gymnastics in this comment is astounding. I logged my thoughts here https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1335634895826087938.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1335634895826087938.html
pwinnski 6y ago
How would you confirm such a thing? CDC guidelines are about likelihood of transmission, not certainty. It's considerate and respectful to wear a mask when around other people. If you're not going to do it, then all I ask is that you stay far away from me and mine.
- hnrodey 6y ago
  How should I know what type of mask to wear to make you feel comfortable? Every mask is different, you know. Because that’s ultimately what this 24/7 mask wearing is about - demanding others engage in specific behaviors to make yourself feel better. I view this as personal responsibility and that’s how I conduct myself. I should draw boundaries for myself with what is and what is not okay and operate accordingly. I don’t expect anyone to change their life to account for my insecurities.
  - pwinnski 6y ago
    That's a really bizarre takeaway, and a huge switch from "I'm not going to do it," which is what I was responding to. If I see a person wearing a mask, even one of those single-ply gaiters that seems to be much less effective than three-ply cotton masks, I still understand that they are not one of the radical science-denying people that make zero effort to avoid infecting themselves and others, and are therefore dangerous. Personal responsibility sounds great, and is a good start. But also, we live in a society, so personal responsibility includes doing what you can to avoid spreading COVID-19 to others. Epidemiology is not "insecurity." That's... wow, I'm not even sure how to respond to that.
pwinnski 6y ago
If you were being at all honest about looking for evidence of transmission from incidental contact, here's an interesting study from Korea[0] revealing COVID-19 transmission in only five minutes from more than six feet away. Indoors, in this case, but an actual bonafide case that suggests airflow is airflow, and being outside might or might not be the magic we all hope it is. 0. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1334641685154902021 https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1334641685154902021 links to https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415 https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415
- hnrodey 6y ago
  https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415 https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415 is about a study on indoor dining and airflow and how infections occurred at a distance > six feet because of direct airflow from the infected to the infectee. Here's the conclusion from the study that was linked: "Droplet transmission can occur at a distance greater than 2 m if there is direct air flow from an infected person. Therefore, updated guidelines involving prevention, contact tracing, and quarantine for COVID-19 are required for control of this highly contagious disease." Walking by someone is an interaction measured in seconds. If that person is infected and shedding via aerosol then a plain cloth mask does not offer much protection. The cloth mask would offer some level of protection if the infected was shedding via droplets from sneeze/cough/etc. If there's direct evidence that wearing a mask on my walk around the neighborhood offers significant benefits then I will reconsider. To this point, I just haven't seen anything that supports this behavior.

quesera 6y ago

> CDC specifically states that transmission occurs with prolonged (15+ minutes) contact in close quarters (less than six feet). No, that's not correct at all. But if I may take a guess at what you meant to write.. Those are guidelines based on estimated inflection points where more time or less distance increases the likelihood of transmission. They are presumed to be good-faith estimates, but they are based on difficult-to-collect data. It's probably reasonable to draw the conclusion that, if fully observed, the guidelines would drive R0 below 1.0 and the trendline would follow. But that doesn't mean that no transmission occurs in other situations. People sometimes sneeze unexpectedly. It takes a fraction of a second to put on the mask that prevents that event from becoming risky, or at least uncomfortable. Cheap insurance. It's also important to realize that "walking by someone while outside" can take many forms, so it's not clear that we're all talking about the same thing. Jogging on a narrow path is very different from strolling on a beach. Different measures are appropriate for different cases, but it's never harmful to use the mask, it's a reasonable habit to get into, and it makes people around you more comfortable. What's the trouble?

hnrodey 6y ago
Part of our current issue with covid is that you can find virtually anything to support whatever you want to believe. Myself included. So I guess it’s 15 minutes of cumulative exposure over the course of 24 hours. Indoors, sure wear a mask. I wear a mask where required indoors. But outdoors no thanks. What’s the trouble? A behavior devoid of reason is nothing more than a ritual. Furthermore, it sets the expectation that the behavior does actually provide tangible benefit leading to a false sense of security and lead to riskier behaviors than what would have otherwise occurred. Finally, masks are not created equal. How do I know the mask “you” are wearing is actually worth a damn? https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2020/10/26/cdc-revises-covid-19-guidance-on-close-contact/5991280002/ https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2020/10/26/cdc-re...
- quesera 6y ago
  > A behavior devoid of reason is nothing more than a ritual. Absolutely. But we're not in "devoid of reason" territory here, we're in "with complex and sometimes impossible to quantify reasons" territory. So here are two people: - Person A is an epidemiologist-statistician who has run the numbers rigorously for his part of his county, factored in the likelihood of inter-county travel, and concluded that there's no benefit for any party to be wearing a mask in the specific situation they expected to be in when they left the house this morning, and that that situation is perfectly aligned with the reality of the day. - Person B is an average underinformed conspiracy theorist who thinks COVID is all a scam perpetrated by the medical establishment for more funding and to undermine Dear Leader and that it would go away like magic in the summer, no the fall, no the winter if only the media would stop talking about it and 5G. Neither person is wearing a mask. Neither person is wearing a baseball cap. How can you (random sidewalk passerby) tell the difference between these two people? I wear a mask, no matter how smart I'm feeling that day. (Note that this is not a response to why one should wear a mask, just a light observation of a positive side effect! But there is value in signalling, even if it's just to normalize the behavior so that the reluctant just stop bothering to protest about such a simple thing, and thereby get a jump on any asymptomatic spread that occurs semi-randomly in populations.. :)
  - hnrodey 6y ago
    The amount of mental gymnastics in this comment is astounding. I logged my thoughts here https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1335634895826087938.html https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1335634895826087938.html

pwinnski 6y ago

How would you confirm such a thing? CDC guidelines are about likelihood of transmission, not certainty. It's considerate and respectful to wear a mask when around other people. If you're not going to do it, then all I ask is that you stay far away from me and mine.

hnrodey 6y ago
How should I know what type of mask to wear to make you feel comfortable? Every mask is different, you know. Because that’s ultimately what this 24/7 mask wearing is about - demanding others engage in specific behaviors to make yourself feel better. I view this as personal responsibility and that’s how I conduct myself. I should draw boundaries for myself with what is and what is not okay and operate accordingly. I don’t expect anyone to change their life to account for my insecurities.
- pwinnski 6y ago
  That's a really bizarre takeaway, and a huge switch from "I'm not going to do it," which is what I was responding to. If I see a person wearing a mask, even one of those single-ply gaiters that seems to be much less effective than three-ply cotton masks, I still understand that they are not one of the radical science-denying people that make zero effort to avoid infecting themselves and others, and are therefore dangerous. Personal responsibility sounds great, and is a good start. But also, we live in a society, so personal responsibility includes doing what you can to avoid spreading COVID-19 to others. Epidemiology is not "insecurity." That's... wow, I'm not even sure how to respond to that.

pwinnski 6y ago

If you were being at all honest about looking for evidence of transmission from incidental contact, here's an interesting study from Korea[0] revealing COVID-19 transmission in only five minutes from more than six feet away. Indoors, in this case, but an actual bonafide case that suggests airflow is airflow, and being outside might or might not be the magic we all hope it is. 0. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1334641685154902021 https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1334641685154902021 links to https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415 https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415

hnrodey 6y ago
https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415 https://jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e415 is about a study on indoor dining and airflow and how infections occurred at a distance > six feet because of direct airflow from the infected to the infectee. Here's the conclusion from the study that was linked: "Droplet transmission can occur at a distance greater than 2 m if there is direct air flow from an infected person. Therefore, updated guidelines involving prevention, contact tracing, and quarantine for COVID-19 are required for control of this highly contagious disease." Walking by someone is an interaction measured in seconds. If that person is infected and shedding via aerosol then a plain cloth mask does not offer much protection. The cloth mask would offer some level of protection if the infected was shedding via droplets from sneeze/cough/etc. If there's direct evidence that wearing a mask on my walk around the neighborhood offers significant benefits then I will reconsider. To this point, I just haven't seen anything that supports this behavior.