5 ms·

So, are you saying that meaningful (not perfect) herd immunity is impossible for any respiratory viral infection, even in the presence of a vaccine that generat

So, are you saying that meaningful (not perfect) herd immunity is impossible for any respiratory viral infection, even in the presence of a vaccine that generates a robust T and B cell response? Also, regarding the nasal swabs in those monkeys in the nature paper, you're not spraying respiratory droplets all over the place out of your nose when you vocalize. It's coming out of your trachea and oropharynx as those vocal cords vibrate and air gets pushed out of the lower airway. You don't sneeze at the grocery store cashier whether you want paper or plastic. "We observed a significantly reduced viral load in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and lower respiratory tract tissue of vaccinated rhesus macaques that were challenged with SARS-CoV-2 compared with control animals" That's a HUGE win in reducing transmission. Come on, you gotta be a little more enthusiastic here! These vaccines getting out there are going to have a MASSIVE impact on knocking down this pandemic.

acqq 6y ago
The vaccines will reduce the visible effects of pandemic, that's sure, by reducing the numbers of those who will have to be admitted to the hospital. In Covid-19 a huge percentage of people who get infected currently have to be hospitalized, and reducing that number will help a lot. What we still can't expect, until we have some different and exact information, is to be able to visit our non-vaccinated or immune suppressed relatives and friends without a mask and be really sure that we can't infect them as long as the incidence is high enough. What we currently know says the opposite: no proof of sterilizing immunity by the current vaccines, and animal studies which show the same viral load in upper respiratory tract mucosa. That's what I personally worry about, I have such people and I don't want them to die because of the, at the moment still unfounded, belief of some (like "phobosanomaly" who uses totally irrelevant quotations to support their claims) that the vaccine must have "sterilizing immunity" while the experts are cautions to point that the currently available information surely doesn't support that. And if "phobosanomaly" now also doesn't claim at the moment that the vaccines have such property but merely that the transmission will be "reduced" then I don't disagree with that. But for me "transmission will be reduced" as this moment still means "we can't even assume that the vulnerable can't become infected from those who already received the vaccine." Also note that the distribution of those who get the vaccine but then still become ill (1 of 20 by Pfizer and Moderna trials) will also not be evenly distributed across the population. That means that if you know even less vulnerable people, you can expect that some of them won't be protected even if they can and do receive the vaccine. I worry also for those. If you also maybe believe that the vulnerable are disposable because they are old and not productive anymore or something like that, I can assure you that I personally know young and worthy people who can still contribute a lot to the world but who can surely be considered vulnerable, and who surely aren't doing anything wrong, who aren't overweight and who are doing sports regularly. And finally, I admit I also worry for those who I know who are considered "older" but whose number of days on this planet can also be seriously affected by the attitudes of those who want to believe only that what is convenient to them, even if it is completely opposite of what is currently known.
- phobosanomaly 6y ago
  There are 200,000 new cases in the United States every day, and nearly 3,000 people dying from this every day. This vaccine will help to arrest the free-fall, and help us get this whole thing under control. It will restore ICU capacity, and open-up hospitals again, so that those with immunocompromised conditions (alongside a hell of a lot of other conditions) will finally be able to get in to see their doctor. It will also stop killing their doctors. I assure you that your immunocompromised friends and family will benefit significantly from getting people vaccinated, in the same way that they currently benefit from vaccination campaigns surrounding seasonal influenza. Not only that, I'm sure your severely immunocompromised friends and family will appreciate actually being able to get their hands on N95s again. If your friends and family are that immunocompromised, you should be wearing a mask around them anyway, because they're very vulnerable to a hell of a lot more bugs that you could be toting around than just SARS-Cov-2 . But, understand that if you live in the United States, there are thousands and thousands of people dying every day from a raging, uncontrolled pandemic that a significant percentage of the population has chosen to simply ignore. I am not the enemy here man. If you think the enemy is someone on HackerNews who actually takes the time to read the papers you cite, you need to take a trip to an Oklahoma WalMart. Remember, I'm not the guy you need to convince to be cautious. I'm the guy advocating the public health benefits of vaccination, not the guy running around telling people that masks are for pussies and that vaccines will give you autism. You have to have a sense of perspective about this whole thing. These vaccines are awesome. They are literally a wonder of modern biotechnology. This technology is pretty much completely novel! This is a net plus for the entire human species.
  - acqq 6y ago
    I'm not denying the known awesomeness of vaccines. I'm denying your currently provably false claims about the extent of their awesomeness, and I've linked to the proofs and specified exactly what you have claimed but what's provably not supported at the moment. I see you don't try anymore to claim what you initially claimed, and that's good. Your claim "you should be wearing a mask around them anyway, because they're very vulnerable to a hell of a lot more bugs that you could be toting around than just SARS-Cov-2" is also wrong. It's also provable, and was easy to read in the press for months, that many people who would otherwise live decades longer, without people around them wearing masks, already died form SARS-Cov-2. There are still many such who have tried to protect themselves in these months but who will be more exposed to those who would wrongly believe in "sterilizing immunity" of the vaccine if there is no such. So it's important to be scientifically accurate. At the current moment, all we know is that the vaccines protect the vaccinated from getting sick. We still don't know that the vaccinated can't transmit the virus to the vulnerable, and until we know that, we must say that we don't know that and protect the vulnerable! As Lawrence Rifkin MD writes, also at the moment on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25287076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25287076 "So when facing loss of innocent life in a house fire, cry openly. Allow yourself to hurt deeply. Comfort the bereaved. But don’t say “it was meant to be” or “they’re in a better place.” Go out and promote stoves with smoke-sensing, automatic shut-off valves. The fact that we have the ability, through conscious choice and action, to change the world and make it a better place is a fundamental wonder of being human. It’s what being good is. Not for the benefit of some other world, but for this, our one world; not for some supernatural being, but for our fellow beings."

acqq 6y ago

The vaccines will reduce the visible effects of pandemic, that's sure, by reducing the numbers of those who will have to be admitted to the hospital. In Covid-19 a huge percentage of people who get infected currently have to be hospitalized, and reducing that number will help a lot. What we still can't expect, until we have some different and exact information, is to be able to visit our non-vaccinated or immune suppressed relatives and friends without a mask and be really sure that we can't infect them as long as the incidence is high enough. What we currently know says the opposite: no proof of sterilizing immunity by the current vaccines, and animal studies which show the same viral load in upper respiratory tract mucosa. That's what I personally worry about, I have such people and I don't want them to die because of the, at the moment still unfounded, belief of some (like "phobosanomaly" who uses totally irrelevant quotations to support their claims) that the vaccine must have "sterilizing immunity" while the experts are cautions to point that the currently available information surely doesn't support that. And if "phobosanomaly" now also doesn't claim at the moment that the vaccines have such property but merely that the transmission will be "reduced" then I don't disagree with that. But for me "transmission will be reduced" as this moment still means "we can't even assume that the vulnerable can't become infected from those who already received the vaccine." Also note that the distribution of those who get the vaccine but then still become ill (1 of 20 by Pfizer and Moderna trials) will also not be evenly distributed across the population. That means that if you know even less vulnerable people, you can expect that some of them won't be protected even if they can and do receive the vaccine. I worry also for those. If you also maybe believe that the vulnerable are disposable because they are old and not productive anymore or something like that, I can assure you that I personally know young and worthy people who can still contribute a lot to the world but who can surely be considered vulnerable, and who surely aren't doing anything wrong, who aren't overweight and who are doing sports regularly. And finally, I admit I also worry for those who I know who are considered "older" but whose number of days on this planet can also be seriously affected by the attitudes of those who want to believe only that what is convenient to them, even if it is completely opposite of what is currently known.

phobosanomaly 6y ago
There are 200,000 new cases in the United States every day, and nearly 3,000 people dying from this every day. This vaccine will help to arrest the free-fall, and help us get this whole thing under control. It will restore ICU capacity, and open-up hospitals again, so that those with immunocompromised conditions (alongside a hell of a lot of other conditions) will finally be able to get in to see their doctor. It will also stop killing their doctors. I assure you that your immunocompromised friends and family will benefit significantly from getting people vaccinated, in the same way that they currently benefit from vaccination campaigns surrounding seasonal influenza. Not only that, I'm sure your severely immunocompromised friends and family will appreciate actually being able to get their hands on N95s again. If your friends and family are that immunocompromised, you should be wearing a mask around them anyway, because they're very vulnerable to a hell of a lot more bugs that you could be toting around than just SARS-Cov-2 . But, understand that if you live in the United States, there are thousands and thousands of people dying every day from a raging, uncontrolled pandemic that a significant percentage of the population has chosen to simply ignore. I am not the enemy here man. If you think the enemy is someone on HackerNews who actually takes the time to read the papers you cite, you need to take a trip to an Oklahoma WalMart. Remember, I'm not the guy you need to convince to be cautious. I'm the guy advocating the public health benefits of vaccination, not the guy running around telling people that masks are for pussies and that vaccines will give you autism. You have to have a sense of perspective about this whole thing. These vaccines are awesome. They are literally a wonder of modern biotechnology. This technology is pretty much completely novel! This is a net plus for the entire human species.
- acqq 6y ago
  I'm not denying the known awesomeness of vaccines. I'm denying your currently provably false claims about the extent of their awesomeness, and I've linked to the proofs and specified exactly what you have claimed but what's provably not supported at the moment. I see you don't try anymore to claim what you initially claimed, and that's good. Your claim "you should be wearing a mask around them anyway, because they're very vulnerable to a hell of a lot more bugs that you could be toting around than just SARS-Cov-2" is also wrong. It's also provable, and was easy to read in the press for months, that many people who would otherwise live decades longer, without people around them wearing masks, already died form SARS-Cov-2. There are still many such who have tried to protect themselves in these months but who will be more exposed to those who would wrongly believe in "sterilizing immunity" of the vaccine if there is no such. So it's important to be scientifically accurate. At the current moment, all we know is that the vaccines protect the vaccinated from getting sick. We still don't know that the vaccinated can't transmit the virus to the vulnerable, and until we know that, we must say that we don't know that and protect the vulnerable! As Lawrence Rifkin MD writes, also at the moment on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25287076 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25287076 "So when facing loss of innocent life in a house fire, cry openly. Allow yourself to hurt deeply. Comfort the bereaved. But don’t say “it was meant to be” or “they’re in a better place.” Go out and promote stoves with smoke-sensing, automatic shut-off valves. The fact that we have the ability, through conscious choice and action, to change the world and make it a better place is a fundamental wonder of being human. It’s what being good is. Not for the benefit of some other world, but for this, our one world; not for some supernatural being, but for our fellow beings."