5 ms·

Maybe he is referring to the fact that not all of the lotteries have the same structure? Idk it still seems like a good estimate to me

listenallyall 6y ago
64% likelihood seems like a good estimate to you? Just take a second and consider whether you'd take the following bet: Your $1000 against my $5000 that anywhere in the world in 2021, a state-run lottery (with at least 5 balls out of at least 50, and a sixth out of at least 20) will have a perfectly sequential result. You're being offered 5 to 1 odds on a probability that you just estimated to be significantly better than a coin flip. Are you in? Or does your gut tell you that 6 perfectly sequential numbers is crazy unlikely?
- konjin 6y ago
  Sure, how do you want to do that bet?
  - listenallyall 6y ago
    I'm 100% serious about making this wager, I've sought out the wisdom of HN for help with a "smart contract" to guarantee trust. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25306489 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25306489 At the same time, I'm not a thief -- to be entirely certain that you want to make this bet, have you read the entire thread, where alternate probabilities (far less than 64%) are proposed? You're aware that the original assumption of 1000 lottery draws per day was a guess from thin air with no research nor basis in fact? You're aware that mrb's calculations overstated the number of possible conforming sequences and undercounted the total number of potential outcomes? If you acknowledge that you're aware of all of this and still want to proceed, let's do it, no joke, I'm 100% in.
- arolihas 6y ago
  It’s crazy unlikely for any particular lottery but there are a ton of draws and a ton of lotteries, and it only needs to happen once in a year. I probably would take that bet if it were feasible but then again I like to gamble.
  - listenallyall 6y ago
    Terrific, the same comment I replied to konjin applies to you as well. I'll absolutely make this bet if there's a trustable platform. Just curious, if a random HN commenter said, there's about a 64% chance that at least one human being will grow to 12 feet tall in 2021, would you take that wager also? I mean, there are a ton of people on the planet, and it only needs to happen once.
    - arolihas 6y ago
      The difference is it’s biophysically infeasible for any human to mature and live as a 12 foot tall adult, considering there is a very small number of 7 feet tall people in 2020. Whereas there is no such constraint for any given sequence of numbers if the lottery allows for them to be drawn. I would rather wager on whether you will continue being an annoying pedant. I prefer my odds there.

listenallyall 6y ago

64% likelihood seems like a good estimate to you? Just take a second and consider whether you'd take the following bet: Your $1000 against my $5000 that anywhere in the world in 2021, a state-run lottery (with at least 5 balls out of at least 50, and a sixth out of at least 20) will have a perfectly sequential result. You're being offered 5 to 1 odds on a probability that you just estimated to be significantly better than a coin flip. Are you in? Or does your gut tell you that 6 perfectly sequential numbers is crazy unlikely?

konjin 6y ago
Sure, how do you want to do that bet?
- listenallyall 6y ago
  I'm 100% serious about making this wager, I've sought out the wisdom of HN for help with a "smart contract" to guarantee trust. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25306489 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25306489 At the same time, I'm not a thief -- to be entirely certain that you want to make this bet, have you read the entire thread, where alternate probabilities (far less than 64%) are proposed? You're aware that the original assumption of 1000 lottery draws per day was a guess from thin air with no research nor basis in fact? You're aware that mrb's calculations overstated the number of possible conforming sequences and undercounted the total number of potential outcomes? If you acknowledge that you're aware of all of this and still want to proceed, let's do it, no joke, I'm 100% in.
arolihas 6y ago
It’s crazy unlikely for any particular lottery but there are a ton of draws and a ton of lotteries, and it only needs to happen once in a year. I probably would take that bet if it were feasible but then again I like to gamble.
- listenallyall 6y ago
  Terrific, the same comment I replied to konjin applies to you as well. I'll absolutely make this bet if there's a trustable platform. Just curious, if a random HN commenter said, there's about a 64% chance that at least one human being will grow to 12 feet tall in 2021, would you take that wager also? I mean, there are a ton of people on the planet, and it only needs to happen once.
  - arolihas 6y ago
    The difference is it’s biophysically infeasible for any human to mature and live as a 12 foot tall adult, considering there is a very small number of 7 feet tall people in 2020. Whereas there is no such constraint for any given sequence of numbers if the lottery allows for them to be drawn. I would rather wager on whether you will continue being an annoying pedant. I prefer my odds there.