3 ms·
> EV of the return is greater than the cost of a single ticket. Wait, if your math is correct, why don't you bet the house on this? With a large enough purchas
by xuki 6y ago
> EV of the return is greater than the cost of a single ticket.
Wait, if your math is correct, why don't you bet the house on this? With a large enough purchase you're guaranteed to make more money than you spend.
- MaximumYComb 6y agoBecause I don't have the $50 million laying around to do it. The EV is only in my favour when I factor in the small prizes PLUS odds of main jackpot / value of main jackpot.
- indecisive_user 6y agoIt doesn't take into account splitting the jackpot. Maybe the expected value is positive if you're the sole winner, but not when 3 other people picked the same numbers as you.
- hnlmorg 6y agoThe thing is, his maths isn't correct. Once upon a time some lottery jackpots would occasionally exceed the cost of buying every ticket. But then crime rings cottoned on to that and bought thousands of tickets. Now lotteries take that probability into account and cap the highest rollover amount. Some even have schemes where if there isn't a winning ticket the prize jackpot trickles down to the next highest tickets -- which is a great way to sell massively more tickets and keep the jackpot low enough that it doesn't exceed the ticket price.