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EIA projections are garbage and have been for years, go look at their own old projections if you want to verify this. World coal consumption peaked in 2013, no

• disown 6y ago
  > EIA projections are garbage and have been for years, go look at their own old projections if you want to verify this. Okay. > World coal consumption peaked in 2013, not sure why you believe it is coming back in 2050?! Because more than half the world's population has yet to industrialize. > Most of the new global energy production brought online is renewables, and has been for the last 4 years.. Okay. > Not sure why you believe fossil fuel use will increase for the next 3 decades?! Firstly, because they are increasing. Secondly, more than half the world's population has yet to industrialize. Thirdly, tons of investment in natural gas. Fossil fuel use is increasing in the US. Do you really think it'll slow in poor developing countries in south asia, south east asia and africa? I believe fossil fuel use will increase for the same reason EIA and every other major energy agency believes it will increase. Reality.
  • yazaddaruvala 6y ago
    > Because more than half the world's population has yet to industrialize. This was true when the projections were that renewables would be more expensive than fossil fuels, but “developed” countries would invest in CO2 reduction “for the greater good”. However, as per the article, renewables (including batteries) are going to become significantly cheaper than fossil fuels. Any reason to believe countries “looking to industrialize” will opt for the more expensive fossil fuel option?
    • disown 6y ago
      > Any reason to believe countries “looking to industrialize” will opt for the more expensive fossil fuel option? Sure, it isn't cheaper or more economical. You are not going to industrialize with rooftop solar panels. Or wind farms which only produce electricity when its windy. For the same reason batteries or gas is cheaper than jet fuel but you can't power a plane on double a batteries. There are major geopolitical "wars" happening right now over gas/oil pipelines. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-29/nord-stream-2-pipeline-construction-to-restart-despite-sanctions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-29/nord-stre... If "renewables" were cheaper or going to be cheaper, why would europe, russia, US, middle east, etc waste their time? Or fight horrific wars over pipelines. https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/is-the-fight-over-a-gas-pipeline-fuelling-the-worlds-bloodiest-conflict/news-story/74efcba9554c10bd35e280b63a9afb74 https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/is-the-fight-over-... Here is the US oil production. Notice that huge spike the last 10 years? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Crude_Oil_Production_and_Imports.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Crude_Oil_Production_a... Here is US gas production. Notice the huge spike the last 10 years? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Natural_Gas_Production.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Natural_Gas_Production... The "renewables" are cheap and going to save the world are for naive children who don't know how the world works. The kind of naive people who think veganism is good for the environment/animals or that we can solve our landfill issues by flying garbage into the sun. Or the naive people who think renewables are actually good for the environment. Renewable energy production is going to rise for sure, but much of that will be hydroelectric power via dams. Those cause their share of environmental problems. If wealthy developed nations are opting for "more expensive fossil fuel", even to the point of going through costly wars, what do you think poor undeveloped countries are going to do? It's not rocket science. The ony solution to our fossil fuel problem is a revolutionary breakthrough like fusion. That's it. Until then the world is going to burn fossil fuel for many more decades at the very least.