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It’s not impossible (more like highly likely) for that trust to go the same way of the Nauru Phosphate Royalties Trust. Administrative burden and corruption. Mi

It’s not impossible (more like highly likely) for that trust to go the same way of the Nauru Phosphate Royalties Trust. Administrative burden and corruption. Mismanagement. Exponential growth can’t go on forever. It’s interesting that UAE is doing the same thing that Nauru did except on a larger scale with petrochemicals instead of phosphate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru_Phosphate_Royalties_Trust?wprov=sfti1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru_Phosphate_Royalties_Trus...

fakedang 6y ago
I've worked with the UAE's SWF, and imo, they'll never collapse. Corruption is nonexistent nearly in the investment authorities, since they are highly regulated and treated essentially as defacto Western companies listed in the NYSE or something. If they collapse, we would have far bigger problems by that time, since they're invested heavily into the modern global economy. This is not oil wealth, but actual invested wealth.
- cik 6y ago
  I came to share exactly this. The UAE is the most forward thinking, of any of the Gulf states. Economic planning literally spans 100 years and multiple scenarios. They're using oil wealth to actively invest in finance, tourism, technology, high-yield agri-tech, and medical research. They also have the most vibrant (by far) tech scene of the Arab world, and are working only to hyper-accelerate that.
  - Thlom 6y ago
    If they are so rich and forward thinking, why do they use slave labor?
    - Nowado 6y ago
      ... why not?
    - wongarsu 6y ago
      Being rich and forward thinking is independent of morals
    - fakedang 6y ago
      First of all, it's not slave labour that's employed in the construction industry or any of the other sectors. I think I can speak for this considering my relatives worked those "slave" jobs as you put it. The UAE had long been forced by the British and the Americans to abolish slavery before they gained their independence. This, unlike Saudi Arabia, where it was legal long after the 1970s. About the "slave" jobs, most of them are basically menial jobs with really shit pay and a combined bunk accommodation. But it's far better than what we get back in India or Pakistan or Bangladesh, which is usually the unemployment line. A number of people have improved their station and are part of the local business community from those levels.
      - scottmcf 6y ago
        Don't they often take their passports and prevent them from leaving?
        arjun-menon 6y ago
        Who do you mean by “they”? Unscrupulous private companies with criminal managers that break the law? A company taking a person’s passport is explicitly illegal in the UAE: https://dubaihow.com/holding-passport-employee-uae/ https://dubaihow.com/holding-passport-employee-uae/ It carries a criminal prison sentence and a fine. And there’s a big push by the UAE government to go after, and prosecute employers who break this law. I don’t know why people in Western countries, always without fail, mention this whenever the UAE comes up. Imagine every time the US was mentioned, a person always pointed out how some private companies in the US treated their employees poorly and abusively (which I’m sure happens). It would be absurd.
        cik 6y ago
        You're spot on, as an Israeli I wanted to thank you for highlighting this. There are individuals in every country who perform illegal acts, that should not reflect on the country as a whole. Shukran ya habibi. In Israel we have a lot of love for the UAE. Together, we're already sharing agra-tech, water-tech, and finance. Israel is looking forward to learning about some of the construction methods being pioneered in building up the desert. This is an unbelievably warm peace.
    - znpy 6y ago
      They get rich because they can exploit slavery, they are forward in a different direction than most people refer to when saying "forward".
- ben_w 6y ago
  > imo, they'll never collapse Things can change surprisingly fast. My grandmother was born close to the peak of the British Empire, within a few years (plus or minus) of Irish independence; by the time my older brother was born the Empire was reduced to about 5 million people outside the UK, and by the time I was born the UK had humiliated itself by managing to lose a naval dispute with Iceland despite the entire population of Iceland country being approximately the same as the number of personnel in the UK armed forces.
  - fakedang 6y ago
    Again, read my last line. The SWF is responsible for all the subsidies in the UAE, and if they collapse, it would mean we have far bigger problems. The SWF invests in all major indices across all major markets, and even in multiple private equity firms (including my old firm, which was one of the biggest in the world). The collapse of $1.1T worth of investments would be the signal of a global collapse. Imagine if Blackrock or Vanguard declared themselves bankrupt one fine morning - that's what you're implying. Also Norway would collapse too, since both the Norwegian and Abu Dhabi SWF have very similar investment profiles. Last time I checked, the British Empire hadn't invested a dime into either the US or Chinese stock markets. Or even had a sovereign wealth fund for that matter.
    - ben_w 6y ago
      I read you last line, but “if it collapses we have bigger things to worry about” was essentially the same argument my father used when he advised me to invest in Lloyds bank — those shares lost 95% of their value since I bought them precisely because “something bigger to worry about” did in fact happen. Now I’m a software dev not an economist, so perhaps you know better, but I have been told that WW2 essentially bankrupted the British Empire, which was 36.54% of global GDP in 1913. I am happy to assume the SWF is invested wisely, but even if the manager’s kids and grandkids continue to invest wisely and learn the explicit lessons of the mistakes of others without ever falling into the mindset that they’re “too big [for anyone else to allow them to] fail” and therefore take risks that make failure more likely, black swan events are an ever-present risk. Indeed, one reason I referenced British Empire is the phrase “the empire on which the sun never sets” — it set on the British, and one day it will set on all the nations that now exist, including UAE.

fakedang 6y ago

I've worked with the UAE's SWF, and imo, they'll never collapse. Corruption is nonexistent nearly in the investment authorities, since they are highly regulated and treated essentially as defacto Western companies listed in the NYSE or something. If they collapse, we would have far bigger problems by that time, since they're invested heavily into the modern global economy. This is not oil wealth, but actual invested wealth.

cik 6y ago
I came to share exactly this. The UAE is the most forward thinking, of any of the Gulf states. Economic planning literally spans 100 years and multiple scenarios. They're using oil wealth to actively invest in finance, tourism, technology, high-yield agri-tech, and medical research. They also have the most vibrant (by far) tech scene of the Arab world, and are working only to hyper-accelerate that.
- Thlom 6y ago
  If they are so rich and forward thinking, why do they use slave labor?
  - Nowado 6y ago
    ... why not?
  - wongarsu 6y ago
    Being rich and forward thinking is independent of morals
  - fakedang 6y ago
    First of all, it's not slave labour that's employed in the construction industry or any of the other sectors. I think I can speak for this considering my relatives worked those "slave" jobs as you put it. The UAE had long been forced by the British and the Americans to abolish slavery before they gained their independence. This, unlike Saudi Arabia, where it was legal long after the 1970s. About the "slave" jobs, most of them are basically menial jobs with really shit pay and a combined bunk accommodation. But it's far better than what we get back in India or Pakistan or Bangladesh, which is usually the unemployment line. A number of people have improved their station and are part of the local business community from those levels.
    - scottmcf 6y ago
      Don't they often take their passports and prevent them from leaving?
      - arjun-menon 6y ago
        Who do you mean by “they”? Unscrupulous private companies with criminal managers that break the law? A company taking a person’s passport is explicitly illegal in the UAE: https://dubaihow.com/holding-passport-employee-uae/ https://dubaihow.com/holding-passport-employee-uae/ It carries a criminal prison sentence and a fine. And there’s a big push by the UAE government to go after, and prosecute employers who break this law. I don’t know why people in Western countries, always without fail, mention this whenever the UAE comes up. Imagine every time the US was mentioned, a person always pointed out how some private companies in the US treated their employees poorly and abusively (which I’m sure happens). It would be absurd.
        cik 6y ago
        You're spot on, as an Israeli I wanted to thank you for highlighting this. There are individuals in every country who perform illegal acts, that should not reflect on the country as a whole. Shukran ya habibi. In Israel we have a lot of love for the UAE. Together, we're already sharing agra-tech, water-tech, and finance. Israel is looking forward to learning about some of the construction methods being pioneered in building up the desert. This is an unbelievably warm peace.
  - znpy 6y ago
    They get rich because they can exploit slavery, they are forward in a different direction than most people refer to when saying "forward".
ben_w 6y ago
> imo, they'll never collapse Things can change surprisingly fast. My grandmother was born close to the peak of the British Empire, within a few years (plus or minus) of Irish independence; by the time my older brother was born the Empire was reduced to about 5 million people outside the UK, and by the time I was born the UK had humiliated itself by managing to lose a naval dispute with Iceland despite the entire population of Iceland country being approximately the same as the number of personnel in the UK armed forces.
- fakedang 6y ago
  Again, read my last line. The SWF is responsible for all the subsidies in the UAE, and if they collapse, it would mean we have far bigger problems. The SWF invests in all major indices across all major markets, and even in multiple private equity firms (including my old firm, which was one of the biggest in the world). The collapse of $1.1T worth of investments would be the signal of a global collapse. Imagine if Blackrock or Vanguard declared themselves bankrupt one fine morning - that's what you're implying. Also Norway would collapse too, since both the Norwegian and Abu Dhabi SWF have very similar investment profiles. Last time I checked, the British Empire hadn't invested a dime into either the US or Chinese stock markets. Or even had a sovereign wealth fund for that matter.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    I read you last line, but “if it collapses we have bigger things to worry about” was essentially the same argument my father used when he advised me to invest in Lloyds bank — those shares lost 95% of their value since I bought them precisely because “something bigger to worry about” did in fact happen. Now I’m a software dev not an economist, so perhaps you know better, but I have been told that WW2 essentially bankrupted the British Empire, which was 36.54% of global GDP in 1913. I am happy to assume the SWF is invested wisely, but even if the manager’s kids and grandkids continue to invest wisely and learn the explicit lessons of the mistakes of others without ever falling into the mindset that they’re “too big [for anyone else to allow them to] fail” and therefore take risks that make failure more likely, black swan events are an ever-present risk. Indeed, one reason I referenced British Empire is the phrase “the empire on which the sun never sets” — it set on the British, and one day it will set on all the nations that now exist, including UAE.