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I haven't seen this mentioned yet, so I'll mention it here: The production curve for bitcoin, that starts steep and eventually levels off when total supply rea
by pradocchia 15y ago
I haven't seen this mentioned yet, so I'll mention it here:
The production curve for bitcoin, that starts steep and eventually levels off when total supply reaches 21M, is not at all like gold:
http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production2.htm http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production2.htm
At times gold production has exceeded population growth, at times it has lagged behind, but it certainly has not leveled off.
Also recall that Friedman called for a fixed 3% growth in the money supply, year on year, commensurate w/ long term rates of economic growth. So why would Bitcoin use a curve that starts steep and levels off?
I have heard two claims from Gavin: 1) it represents the pattern of natural resource extraction (easy it first, progressively harder until the marginal cost exceeds the margin gain), and 2) it encourages early adopters.
Now, I might wish it weren't so, but we're really good at natural resource extraction, and we get better over time, until demand falls. Plus, the general thinking goes, money supply should ideally grow at a constant rate, in line w/ long term economic averages. Maybe the extended long term view would restate that as a constant rate, relative to population growth. I don't know. The system has to reach equilibrium eventually, but we're not there yet, and for now the closest approximation is a constant percent, year-on-year.
So I'm afraid that reason (1), and Bitcoin resembling something fundamental in nature and the economy, is just not true. At best, Bitcoin is an entirely new kind of monetary system, with properties that don't resemble the gold standard or fiat currency, but will be beneficial in some fashion down the road. And at worst, it's just a Ponzi scheme.
I haven't seen (1) addressed substantively, so for now I'm tending towards bitcoin-as-ponzi-scheme.
- weavejester 15y agoHow exactly bitcoin resemble a Ponzi scheme? It kinda sounds like you mean pyramid scheme, rather than Ponzi scheme. (Not that bitcoin is a pyramid scheme either...)
- pradocchia 15y agoIn that Bitcoin presents itself as a viable alternative currency, and encourages adoption by people looking for a safe haven from fiat currency. Eventually, though, it could become clear that certain factors, possibly the production function, preclude it from long term viability. The value drops, holding are wiped out, but not before the earliest adopters have already secured their gains.
- weavejester 15y agoIt's only a Ponzi scheme if you're lying to investors about how much money you have. If you invest in something and then it fails due to some unforeseen factor, that's just bad luck (or bad planning), not a Ponzi scheme.