4 ms·
It may be just as likely to win but it's not just as good, the expected value of the prize is much smaller because the prize will be shared with a large number
by mantap 6y ago
It may be just as likely to win but it's not just as good, the expected value of the prize is much smaller because the prize will be shared with a large number of people. Better to choose a random set of numbers.
- lkxijlewlf 6y agoBut that's a completely different point.
- wp381640 6y agoIt isn't because if you play every week you should be looking at EV and returns - not the likelihood of winning the entire jackpot on one run With prize pools often paying down to a few numbers selected you could be +EV over the field if you pick numbers they don't
- lkxijlewlf 6y agoI don't play. The point was, the people I talk to who do, don't understand probability. Nothing else matters until they understand probability.
- creddit 6y agoBut they seem to have had an intuitive grasp for something out of your reach. Seems like a wash on superiority complexes.
- dxdm 6y agoYou're making some assumptions here about people, their conversations and motives, all of which you don't know, to come to some sweeping negative conclusion. I have no trouble at all believing that guy knows some people who have a bad grasp on probabilities, especially if they also happen to play the lottery. ;)
- smabie 6y agoBut it doesn't seem like you have a very good understanding of EV and probability either since you recommend a completely sub-optimal strategy.
- dxdm 6y agoHe's not suggesting a strategy, he's highlighting a controversial pick to get them to question their assumptions.
- lkxijlewlf 6y agoI'm not trying to help them win. I'd rather they not play at all. It's throwing money away.
- listenallyall 6y agoYou're stating it like only lottery players don't understand probabilities. Read the top comments in the thread, plenty of educated, intelligent HN readers have no clue how to calculate these probabilities either. In fact, most lottery players I've met DO understand probability, or at least grasp the fact that their "investment" is, in the long term, an expensive hobby.
- dxdm 6y ago> You're stating it like only lottery players don't understand probabilities. OP doesn't say that literally, and I'm not reading it that way, either. > In fact, most lottery players I've met DO understand probability That's great! However, OP might be talking to and about different people here. People who don't know probabilities well exist, and some of them play the lottery. In fact, I think there's a lot of them. I think all OP is saying that it's better for people to understand probability better, and then decide to play the lottery, like the people that you're talking to.
- fractionalhare 6y agoYes, but it's also a good point!