5 ms·

I've told the few people I know who play the lotto they should pick "1,2,3,4,5,6" and their faces screw up. I tell them it's just as likely. They don't believe

I've told the few people I know who play the lotto they should pick "1,2,3,4,5,6" and their faces screw up. I tell them it's just as likely. They don't believe me. I ask, then why are you even playing if you don't understand the game? That doesn't go over well.

united893 6y ago
I used to do the same. Told my mom to buy that ticket, and explained to her she was wrong. And that made her sad to realize. She buys the tickets because she enjoys the pleasure of forward predictions: what will she do with the money. Go to the bahamas, buy a villa. Relax. That forward projection means dopamine and norephedrine release -- similar to taking a drug. She enjoys that pleasure that's why she buys it.
- nlh 6y ago
  Hear hear. That's exactly why I occasionally buy a lotto ticket or 20 when the number gets REALLY big. I consider $20 every year toward an hour of fantasizing about what I'd do with a $500M lump sum a worthwhile investment. ($500M lump sum...$250M after taxes...invested into triple tax-free muni bonds paying 2.5%....ahhhh...$521,000 a month for life...mmmmmm)
- inakarmacoma 6y ago
  Norepinephrine?
mantap 6y ago
It may be just as likely to win but it's not just as good, the expected value of the prize is much smaller because the prize will be shared with a large number of people. Better to choose a random set of numbers.
- lkxijlewlf 6y ago
  But that's a completely different point.
  - wp381640 6y ago
    It isn't because if you play every week you should be looking at EV and returns - not the likelihood of winning the entire jackpot on one run With prize pools often paying down to a few numbers selected you could be +EV over the field if you pick numbers they don't
    - lkxijlewlf 6y ago
      I don't play. The point was, the people I talk to who do, don't understand probability. Nothing else matters until they understand probability.
      - creddit 6y ago
        But they seem to have had an intuitive grasp for something out of your reach. Seems like a wash on superiority complexes.
        dxdm 6y ago
        You're making some assumptions here about people, their conversations and motives, all of which you don't know, to come to some sweeping negative conclusion. I have no trouble at all believing that guy knows some people who have a bad grasp on probabilities, especially if they also happen to play the lottery. ;)
      - smabie 6y ago
        But it doesn't seem like you have a very good understanding of EV and probability either since you recommend a completely sub-optimal strategy.
        dxdm 6y ago
        He's not suggesting a strategy, he's highlighting a controversial pick to get them to question their assumptions.
        lkxijlewlf 6y ago
im3w1l 6y ago
As we see from this very article, while 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same chance of being drawn it has a higher chance of being called a scam. So lower chance that you will see money wired to your account.

united893 6y ago

I used to do the same. Told my mom to buy that ticket, and explained to her she was wrong. And that made her sad to realize. She buys the tickets because she enjoys the pleasure of forward predictions: what will she do with the money. Go to the bahamas, buy a villa. Relax. That forward projection means dopamine and norephedrine release -- similar to taking a drug. She enjoys that pleasure that's why she buys it.

nlh 6y ago
Hear hear. That's exactly why I occasionally buy a lotto ticket or 20 when the number gets REALLY big. I consider $20 every year toward an hour of fantasizing about what I'd do with a $500M lump sum a worthwhile investment. ($500M lump sum...$250M after taxes...invested into triple tax-free muni bonds paying 2.5%....ahhhh...$521,000 a month for life...mmmmmm)
inakarmacoma 6y ago
Norepinephrine?

mantap 6y ago

It may be just as likely to win but it's not just as good, the expected value of the prize is much smaller because the prize will be shared with a large number of people. Better to choose a random set of numbers.

lkxijlewlf 6y ago
But that's a completely different point.
- wp381640 6y ago
  It isn't because if you play every week you should be looking at EV and returns - not the likelihood of winning the entire jackpot on one run With prize pools often paying down to a few numbers selected you could be +EV over the field if you pick numbers they don't
  - lkxijlewlf 6y ago
    I don't play. The point was, the people I talk to who do, don't understand probability. Nothing else matters until they understand probability.
    - creddit 6y ago
      But they seem to have had an intuitive grasp for something out of your reach. Seems like a wash on superiority complexes.
      - dxdm 6y ago
        You're making some assumptions here about people, their conversations and motives, all of which you don't know, to come to some sweeping negative conclusion. I have no trouble at all believing that guy knows some people who have a bad grasp on probabilities, especially if they also happen to play the lottery. ;)
    - smabie 6y ago
      But it doesn't seem like you have a very good understanding of EV and probability either since you recommend a completely sub-optimal strategy.
      - dxdm 6y ago
        He's not suggesting a strategy, he's highlighting a controversial pick to get them to question their assumptions.
      - lkxijlewlf 6y ago

im3w1l 6y ago

As we see from this very article, while 1,2,3,4,5,6 has the same chance of being drawn it has a higher chance of being called a scam. So lower chance that you will see money wired to your account.